Costa do Sauipe: Andre Souza vs Wilson Leite
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Wilson Leite (60%) · Wilson Leite at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Wilson Leite
10
Wilson Leite 60%
$14.7K
$1.2K
71.7¢ → 100¢
+39% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralWilson Leite at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Wilson Leiteavg 70¢ | $9.7K | $12.1K | +$2.4K | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Andre Souzaavg 16.7¢ | $2.3K | $1.0K | $-1.3K | 50% 19465-19831 (39296) |
UP UpTheBlues | Wilson Leiteavg 92.2¢ | $1.2K | $950.6 | -$282.97 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
 poshposh | Wilson Leiteavg 76.1¢ | $346.1 | $454.27 | +$108.17 | 58% 10691-7671 (18362) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Wilson Leiteavg 83.5¢ | $115.79 | $120.94 | +$5.15 | 52% 13935-12713 (26648) |
0X 0x3cc65a9097a1c1e134366d6fb96a1e8eed4f53f7 | Wilson Leiteavg 88.6¢ | $995.8 | $49.76 | +$107 | 66% 98-51 (149) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR | Andre Souzaavg 3.2¢ | $1.1K | $26.35 | +$116.2 | 60% 4110-2768 (6878) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Andre Souzaavg 12¢ | $9.91 | $11.97 | +$2.06 | 61% 13796-8679 (22475) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Wilson Leiteavg 88¢ | $8.8 | $8.95 | +$0.15 | 51% 6082-5802 (11884) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Andre Souzaavg 8¢ | $1.04 | $0.98 | -$0.07 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
RN1Invested
$9,677.23
Value
$12.1K
PnL
+$2.4K
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$2,326.48
Value
$1.0K
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
50%
19465-19831 (39296)
Invested
$1,233.56
Value
$950.6
PnL
-$282.97
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
poshposhInvested
$346.1
Value
$454.27
PnL
+$108.17
Record
58%
10691-7671 (18362)
Invested
$115.79
Value
$120.94
PnL
+$5.15
Record
52%
13935-12713 (26648)
Invested
$995.8
Value
$49.76
PnL
+$107
Record
66%
98-51 (149)
Invested
$1,100.4
Value
$26.35
PnL
+$116.2
Record
60%
4110-2768 (6878)
Invested
$9.91
Value
$11.97
PnL
+$2.06
Record
61%
13796-8679 (22475)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$8.8
Value
$8.95
PnL
+$0.15
Record
51%
6082-5802 (11884)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$0.98
PnL
-$0.07
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
Wilson Leite — $12.1K
omnibus-076daa
CTRAndre Souza — $1.0K
UpTheBlues
Wilson Leite — $950.6
poshposh
Wilson Leite — $454.27
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Wilson Leite — $120.94
0x3cc65a9097a1c1e134366d6fb96a1e8eed4f53f7
Wilson Leite — $49.76
thestingsnake
CTRAndre Souza — $26.35
Lilybaeum
CTRAndre Souza — $11.97
tradecraft
Wilson Leite — $8.95
HRTrading
CTRAndre Souza — $0.98