Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jaume Munar

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Jaume Munar (58%) · Jaume Munar at 55¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 7

Lorenzo Sonego46¢Jaume Munar54¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jaume Munar

Consensus Traders

Jaume Munar 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

-$748.74

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 54.5¢

-13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralJaume Munar at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jaume Munar

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lorenzo Sonego46%

Jaume Munar55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jaume Munar7 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares14,363

Combined PnL-$726.55

Lorenzo Sonego5 traders

Total Value$332.52

Total Shares869

Combined PnL-$22.19

Jaume Munar — 58%Lorenzo Sonego — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Jaume Munaravg 62¢	$3.5K	$3.9K	+$367.28	48% 922-993 (1915)
RN1	Jaume Munaravg 65.6¢	$3.5K	$2.6K	-$922.77	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
tradecraftARB<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 41¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$521.19	51% 6007-5697 (11704)
└ Jaume Munar leg	Jaume Munaravg 72¢	$704.15	$748.16	+$44.01
└ Lorenzo Sonego leg	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 41¢	$1.0K	$589.85	-$565.2
CH chiefphi	Jaume Munaravg 49¢	$980	$970	-$10	53% 115-103 (218)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Jaume Munaravg 81.8¢	$961.09	$798.58	-$162.51	52% 13785-12588 (26373)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Jaume Munaravg 61.9¢	$412.72	$344.15	-$49.16	60% 4069-2739 (6808)
└ Jaume Munar leg	Jaume Munaravg 61.9¢	$254.38	$215.61	-$38.76
└ Lorenzo Sonego leg	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 47.8¢	$129.35	$128.53	-$10.4
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 42¢	$277.43	$254.31	-$23.12	49% 19161-19553 (38714)
TRCM	Jaume Munaravg 64¢	$211.52	$210.64	-$0.88	55% 3949-3181 (7130)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 37.7¢	$34.71	$35.42	+$0.71	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 39¢	$33.15	$32.73	-$0.42	50% 3870-3825 (7695)
poshposh<$100	Jaume Munaravg 60¢	$19.48	$20.46	+$0.97	59% 10176-7169 (17345)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 23.9¢	$7.42	$8.14	+$0.72	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Jaume Munaravg 61¢	$11.3	$7.05	+$1.35	85% 5317-914 (6231)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 40¢	$2	$1.93	-$0.07	48% 2393-2622 (5015)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Jaume Munar

Invested

$3,503.33

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$367.28

Record

48%

922-993 (1915)

RN1

Jaume Munar

Invested

$3,546.54

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$922.77

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

tradecraftARB<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$1,733.7

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$521.19

Record

51%

6007-5697 (11704)

Both legs:

Jaume Munar$704.1572¢+$44.01

Lorenzo Sonego$1,029.5541¢-$565.2

chiefphi

Jaume Munar

Invested

$980

Value

$970

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

115-103 (218)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Jaume Munar

Invested

$961.09

Value

$798.58

PnL

-$162.51

Record

52%

13785-12588 (26373)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Jaume Munar

Invested

$412.72

Value

$344.15

PnL

-$49.16

Record

60%

4069-2739 (6808)

Both legs:

Jaume Munar$254.3861.9¢-$38.76

Lorenzo Sonego$129.3547.8¢-$10.4

omnibus-076daaCTR

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$277.43

Value

$254.31

PnL

-$23.12

Record

49%

19161-19553 (38714)

TRCM

Jaume Munar

Invested

$211.52

Value

$210.64

PnL

-$0.88

Record

55%

3949-3181 (7130)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$34.71

Value

$35.42

PnL

+$0.71

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$33.15

Value

$32.73

PnL

-$0.42

Record

50%

3870-3825 (7695)

poshposh<$100

Jaume Munar

Invested

$19.48

Value

$20.46

PnL

+$0.97

Record

59%

10176-7169 (17345)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$7.42

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$0.72

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Jaume Munar

Invested

$11.3

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$1.35

Record

85%

5317-914 (6231)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

2393-2622 (5015)

Research grade

NeutralJaume Munar at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jaume Munar

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jaume Munar wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.