Guayaquil: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Joaquin Aguilar

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Joaquin Aguilar (50%) · Joaquin Aguilar at 78¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 7

Joao Lucas Da Silva23¢Joaquin Aguilar77¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Joaquin Aguilar

Consensus Traders

Joaquin Aguilar 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.8K

Combined PnL

$52.82

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 77.5¢

+66% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralJoaquin Aguilar at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Joaquin Aguilar

4 of 8 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Joao Lucas Da Silva23%

Joaquin Aguilar78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Joaquin Aguilar4 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares13,019

Combined PnL+$51.29

Joao Lucas Da Silva4 traders

Total Value$20.64

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$1.53

Joaquin Aguilar — 50%Joao Lucas Da Silva — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Joaquin Aguilaravg 50¢	$5.9K	$5.3K	-$600.22	54% 56713-48922 (105635)
└ Joaquin Aguilar leg	Joaquin Aguilaravg 50¢	$3.2K	$2.8K	-$415.9
└ Joao Lucas Da Silva leg	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 60.7¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$184.32
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Joaquin Aguilaravg 46.8¢	$4.2K	$4.0K	-$208.94	38% 501-813 (1314)
UP UpTheBlues	Joaquin Aguilaravg 45.3¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$247.8	59% 46056-32360 (78416)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 56.5¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$63.29	52% 13824-12612 (26436)
└ Joaquin Aguilar leg	Joaquin Aguilaravg 51.1¢	$670.79	$1.0K	+$347.17
└ Joao Lucas Da Silva leg	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 56.5¢	$682.08	$271.62	-$410.46
LI Lilybaeum	Joaquin Aguilaravg 50¢	$415.03	$427.48	+$12.45	61% 13730-8604 (22334)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 50.9¢	$225.8	$98.81	-$27.91	53% 670-591 (1261)
└ Joaquin Aguilar leg	Joaquin Aguilaravg 36.5¢	$36.57	$73.13	+$15.56
└ Joao Lucas Da Silva leg	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 50.9¢	$48.45	$25.68	-$43.47
HRTradingCTR<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 58¢	$4.83	$6.33	+$1.5	53% 4883-4360 (9243)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 57¢	$5.7	$5.65	-$0.05	51% 1466-1410 (2876)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 55¢	$5.5	$5.55	+$0.05	85% 5393-940 (6333)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 48¢	$3.08	$3.11	+$0.03	58% 28818-21252 (50070)
tradecraft<$100	Joaquin Aguilaravg 28¢	$1.4	$1.38	-$0.02	51% 6026-5729 (11755)

RN1ARB<$100

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$5,857.95

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$600.22

Record

54%

56713-48922 (105635)

Both legs:

Joaquin Aguilar$3,199.2250¢-$415.9

Joao Lucas Da Silva$2,658.7360.7¢-$184.32

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$4,208.48

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$208.94

Record

38%

501-813 (1314)

UpTheBlues

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$2,453.55

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$247.8

Record

59%

46056-32360 (78416)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$1,352.87

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$63.29

Record

52%

13824-12612 (26436)

Both legs:

Joaquin Aguilar$670.7951.1¢+$347.17

Joao Lucas Da Silva$682.0856.5¢-$410.46

Lilybaeum

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$415.03

Value

$427.48

PnL

+$12.45

Record

61%

13730-8604 (22334)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$225.8

Value

$98.81

PnL

-$27.91

Record

53%

670-591 (1261)

Both legs:

Joaquin Aguilar$36.5736.5¢+$15.56

Joao Lucas Da Silva$48.4550.9¢-$43.47

HRTradingCTR<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$4.83

Value

$6.33

PnL

+$1.5

Record

53%

4883-4360 (9243)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.65

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1466-1410 (2876)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

85%

5393-940 (6333)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$3.08

Value

$3.11

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

28818-21252 (50070)

tradecraft<$100

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

6026-5729 (11755)

Research grade

NeutralJoaquin Aguilar at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Joaquin Aguilar

4 of 8 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Joaquin Aguilar wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.