Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yu-Hsiou Hsu, while the market favors Yuta Shimizu (54%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ningbo: Yuta Shimizu vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yu-Hsiou Hsu (40%) · Yu-Hsiou Hsu at 47¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 5

Yuta Shimizu54¢Yu-Hsiou Hsu46¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Consensus Traders

Yu-Hsiou Hsu 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$44.55

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 46.5¢

-21% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYu-Hsiou Hsu at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yuta Shimizu 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yuta Shimizu54%

Yu-Hsiou Hsu47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yu-Hsiou Hsu4 traders

Total Value$979

Total Shares1,682

Combined PnL+$131.96

Yuta Shimizu6 traders

Total Value$339.64

Total Shares864

Combined PnL-$87.4

Yu-Hsiou Hsu — 40%Yuta Shimizu — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 63.9¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$95.54	52% 13536-12383 (25919)
└ Yu-Hsiou Hsu leg	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 63.9¢	$992.86	$752.99	+$55.12
└ Yuta Shimizu leg	Yuta Shimizuavg 48.1¢	$573.18	$613.6	+$40.42
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 58.6¢	$1.7K	$874.27	+$145.49	60% 3949-2662 (6611)
PA pauleta23	Yuta Shimizuavg 53.6¢	$190.7	$139.89	-$70.79	67% 23084-11471 (34555)
BI BillBenter2026	Yuta Shimizuavg 48.3¢	$126.45	$132.31	+$5.86	58% 18346-13474 (31820)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Yuta Shimizuavg 34.7¢	$86.26	$58.34	-$27.92	50% 3697-3672 (7369)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 57.9¢	$69.5	$48.5	-$11.2	48% 3646-3904 (7550)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 75.1¢	$45.07	$42.24	-$2.83	53% 2956-2611 (5567)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 54¢	$13.5	$14	+$0.5	58% 40677-29411 (70088)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Yuta Shimizuavg 40¢	$4.7	$5.17	+$0.47	62% 13594-8446 (22040)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Yuta Shimizuavg 44¢	$3.19	$3.19	+$0	59% 44559-30977 (75536)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Yuta Shimizuavg 50¢	$25	$0.74	+$4.98	56% 1803-1406 (3209)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$1,271.05

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$95.54

Record

52%

13536-12383 (25919)

Both legs:

Yu-Hsiou Hsu$992.8663.9¢+$55.12

Yuta Shimizu$573.1848.1¢+$40.42

thestingsnakeCTR

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$1,745.8

Value

$874.27

PnL

+$145.49

Record

60%

3949-2662 (6611)

pauleta23

Yuta Shimizu

Invested

$190.7

Value

$139.89

PnL

-$70.79

Record

67%

23084-11471 (34555)

BillBenter2026

Yuta Shimizu

Invested

$126.45

Value

$132.31

PnL

+$5.86

Record

58%

18346-13474 (31820)

NatoAlfista<$100

Yuta Shimizu

Invested

$86.26

Value

$58.34

PnL

-$27.92

Record

50%

3697-3672 (7369)

efntrickCTR<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$69.5

Value

$48.5

PnL

-$11.2

Record

48%

3646-3904 (7550)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$45.07

Value

$42.24

PnL

-$2.83

Record

53%

2956-2611 (5567)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$13.5

Value

$14

PnL

+$0.5

Record

58%

40677-29411 (70088)

Lilybaeum<$100

Yuta Shimizu

Invested

$4.7

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$0.47

Record

62%

13594-8446 (22040)

UpTheBlues<$100

Yuta Shimizu

Invested

$3.19

Value

$3.19

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

44559-30977 (75536)

SchruteBucks<$100

Yuta Shimizu

Invested

$25

Value

$0.74

PnL

+$4.98

Record

56%

1803-1406 (3209)

Research grade

NeutralYu-Hsiou Hsu at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yuta Shimizu 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yu-Hsiou Hsu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.