Seoul: Sho Shimabukuro vs Coleman Wong

13 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Coleman Wong (72%) · Coleman Wong at 93¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 6

Sho Shimabukuro8¢Coleman Wong92¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Coleman Wong

Consensus Traders

Coleman Wong 72%

Total Value

$19.2K

Combined PnL

-$250.68

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 92.5¢

+35% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralColeman Wong at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Coleman Wong

13 of 18 top traders (72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Sho Shimabukuro8%

Coleman Wong93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sho Shimabukuro5 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares14,853

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Coleman Wong13 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares18,831

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Sho Shimabukuro — 28%Coleman Wong — 72%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Coleman Wong. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColeman Wong 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpColeman Wong 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSho Shimabukuro 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedSho Shimabukuro 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Sho Shimabukuro 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Sho Shimabukuroavg 36.9¢	$5.4K	$7.0K	+$1.5K	38% 486-800 (1286)
RN1	Coleman Wongavg 69¢	$3.5K	$2.6K	-$821.92	54% 56128-48277 (104405)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Coleman Wongavg 64¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$221.32	52% 13694-12504 (26198)
TH thestingsnake	Coleman Wongavg 73.1¢	$2.3K	$1.6K	-$614.39	60% 4025-2706 (6731)
VeryLucky888	Coleman Wongavg 62¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$278.14	58% 41361-29991 (71352)
HO HomeRunHazard	Coleman Wongavg 69¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$248.1	54% 17024-14269 (31293)
38 38791873984189	Coleman Wongavg 72.1¢	$2.9K	$1.2K	-$171.78	—
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Coleman Wongavg 66¢	$693	$552	-$141	51% 1372-1317 (2689)
OM omnibus-076daa	Coleman Wongavg 80¢	$669.6	$440.02	-$229.58	49% 18905-19321 (38226)
poshposh	Coleman Wongavg 64.9¢	$362.83	$293.92	-$68.91	59% 9768-6750 (16518)
EU Eulhunter	Coleman Wongavg 62.1¢	$135.07	$191.14	+$56.07	55% 5681-4719 (10400)
BI BillBenter2026	Coleman Wongavg 81.2¢	$108.81	$121.55	+$12.74	58% 18531-13609 (32140)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Sho Shimabukuroavg 36¢	$23.4	$22.42	-$0.98	55% 7013-5629 (12642)
tradecraft<$100	Coleman Wongavg 52.6¢	$18.4	$18.4	+$0	51% 5955-5641 (11596)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Sho Shimabukuroavg 36¢	$14.76	$18.04	+$3.28	58% 28303-20884 (49187)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Sho Shimabukuroavg 30.7¢	$18.48	$6.93	-$11.56	—
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Coleman Wongavg 76¢	$3.85	$2.67	-$1.19	86% 4968-829 (5797)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Sho Shimabukuroavg 31¢	$1.24	$1.9	+$0.66	52% 3869-3521 (7390)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Sho Shimabukuro

Invested

$5,417

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

38%

486-800 (1286)

RN1

Coleman Wong

Invested

$3,452.07

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$821.92

Record

54%

56128-48277 (104405)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Coleman Wong

Invested

$1,860.65

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$221.32

Record

52%

13694-12504 (26198)

thestingsnake

Coleman Wong

Invested

$2,303.47

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$614.39

Record

60%

4025-2706 (6731)

VeryLucky888

Coleman Wong

Invested

$2,016.58

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$278.14

Record

58%

41361-29991 (71352)

HomeRunHazard

Coleman Wong

Invested

$1,177.83

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$248.1

Record

54%

17024-14269 (31293)

38791873984189

Coleman Wong

Invested

$2,912.14

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$171.78

Record

—

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Coleman Wong

Invested

$693

Value

$552

PnL

-$141

Record

51%

1372-1317 (2689)

omnibus-076daa

Coleman Wong

Invested

$669.6

Value

$440.02

PnL

-$229.58

Record

49%

18905-19321 (38226)

poshposh

Coleman Wong

Invested

$362.83

Value

$293.92

PnL

-$68.91

Record

59%

9768-6750 (16518)

Eulhunter

Coleman Wong

Invested

$135.07

Value

$191.14

PnL

+$56.07

Record

55%

5681-4719 (10400)

BillBenter2026

Coleman Wong

Invested

$108.81

Value

$121.55

PnL

+$12.74

Record

58%

18531-13609 (32140)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Sho Shimabukuro

Invested

$23.4

Value

$22.42

PnL

-$0.98

Record

55%

7013-5629 (12642)

tradecraft<$100

Coleman Wong

Invested

$18.4

Value

$18.4

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

5955-5641 (11596)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Sho Shimabukuro

Invested

$14.76

Value

$18.04

PnL

+$3.28

Record

58%

28303-20884 (49187)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Sho Shimabukuro

Invested

$18.48

Value

$6.93

PnL

-$11.56

Record

—

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Coleman Wong

Invested

$3.85

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$1.19

Record

86%

4968-829 (5797)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Sho Shimabukuro

Invested

$1.24

Value

$1.9

PnL

+$0.66

Record

52%

3869-3521 (7390)

Research grade

NeutralColeman Wong at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Coleman Wong

13 of 18 top traders (72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Coleman Wong. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColeman Wong 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpColeman Wong 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSho Shimabukuro 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedSho Shimabukuro 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Sho Shimabukuro 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Coleman Wong wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.