Knoxville: Braden Shick vs Andres Andrade

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Braden Shick (63%) · Braden Shick at 61¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 16

Braden Shick61¢Andres Andrade39¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Braden Shick

Consensus Traders

Braden Shick 63%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$18.17

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 60.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBraden Shick at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Braden Shick

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Braden Shick61%

Andres Andrade40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Braden Shick5 traders

Total Value$971.48

Total Shares1,606

Combined PnL-$6

Andres Andrade3 traders

Total Value$58.1

Total Shares137

Combined PnL-$12.18

Braden Shick — 63%Andres Andrade — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Braden Shick. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Braden Shick 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Braden Shickavg 61¢	$654.16	$648.87	-$5.29	—
GA Gaditima	Braden Shickavg 61¢	$305	$302.5	-$2.5	—
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Andres Andradeavg 49.5¢	$39.59	$31.57	-$8.01	—
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Andres Andradeavg 48¢	$25.35	$22.13	-$3.22	—
SH shiifoo<$100	Braden Shickavg 61¢	$7.87	$7.8	-$0.06	—
MA MadridTime<$100	Braden Shickavg 50¢	$5.5	$6.66	+$1.16	—
PA Pan9X<$100	Braden Shickavg 53¢	$9.33	$5.64	+$0.7	—
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Andres Andradeavg 48¢	$5.34	$4.39	-$0.95	—

38791873984189

Braden Shick

Invested

$654.16

Value

$648.87

PnL

-$5.29

Record

—

Gaditima

Braden Shick

Invested

$305

Value

$302.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

—

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Andres Andrade

Invested

$39.59

Value

$31.57

PnL

-$8.01

Record

—

VenusianCTR<$100

Andres Andrade

Invested

$25.35

Value

$22.13

PnL

-$3.22

Record

—

shiifoo<$100

Braden Shick

Invested

$7.87

Value

$7.8

PnL

-$0.06

Record

—

MadridTime<$100

Braden Shick

Invested

$5.5

Value

$6.66

PnL

+$1.16

Record

—

Pan9X<$100

Braden Shick

Invested

$9.33

Value

$5.64

PnL

+$0.7

Record

—

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Andres Andrade

Invested

$5.34

Value

$4.39

PnL

-$0.95

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralBraden Shick at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Braden Shick

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Braden Shick. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Braden Shick 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Braden Shick wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.