Sydney: Anton Shepp vs Kokoro Isomura
5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Anton Shepp (45%) · Anton Shepp at 62¢ · $590 held · ends Nov 22
⚖️
Neutral
Anton Shepp
11
Anton Shepp 45%
$589.76
$2.21
75.6¢ → 61.5¢
-19% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralAnton Shepp at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Anton Sheppavg 76¢ | $451.1 | $454.14 | +$3.04 | 48% 3662-4031 (7693) |
EF efntrick<$100 | Anton Sheppavg 72¢ | $26.02 | $27.47 | +$1.45 | 45% 102-125 (227) |
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100 | Kokoro Isomuraavg 29¢ | $25.32 | $25.76 | +$0.44 | 48% 331-359 (690) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Kokoro Isomuraavg 27.4¢ | $24.26 | $20.36 | -$3.9 | 38% 1216-2009 (3225) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Anton Sheppavg 71¢ | $17.75 | $18.63 | +$0.88 | 34% 228-441 (669) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Anton Sheppavg 76¢ | $14.56 | $14.65 | +$0.1 | 54% 1714-1481 (3195) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Kokoro Isomuraavg 25.4¢ | $10.45 | $11.47 | +$1.02 | 38% 1229-2023 (3252) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Anton Sheppavg 74.2¢ | $9.5 | $9.73 | +$0.23 | 46% 577-678 (1255) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Kokoro Isomuraavg 27¢ | $6.41 | $5.46 | -$0.95 | 38% 1242-1999 (3241) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Kokoro Isomuraavg 23¢ | $1.15 | $1.15 | +$0 | 46% 811-960 (1771) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Kokoro Isomuraavg 25¢ | $1.03 | $0.95 | -$0.08 | 50% 1931-1953 (3884) |
Invested
$451.1
Value
$454.14
PnL
+$3.04
Record
48%
3662-4031 (7693)
Invested
$26.02
Value
$27.47
PnL
+$1.45
Record
45%
102-125 (227)
Invested
$25.32
Value
$25.76
PnL
+$0.44
Record
48%
331-359 (690)
Invested
$24.26
Value
$20.36
PnL
-$3.9
Record
38%
1216-2009 (3225)
Invested
$17.75
Value
$18.63
PnL
+$0.88
Record
34%
228-441 (669)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$14.56
Value
$14.65
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
1714-1481 (3195)
Invested
$10.45
Value
$11.47
PnL
+$1.02
Record
38%
1229-2023 (3252)
Invested
$9.5
Value
$9.73
PnL
+$0.23
Record
46%
577-678 (1255)
Invested
$6.41
Value
$5.46
PnL
-$0.95
Record
38%
1242-1999 (3241)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$1.15
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
811-960 (1771)
Invested
$1.03
Value
$0.95
PnL
-$0.08
Record
50%
1931-1953 (3884)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
38791873984189
Anton Shepp — $454.14
efntrick
Anton Shepp — $27.47
thirdt1me
CTRKokoro Isomura — $25.76
Limousin
CTRKokoro Isomura — $20.36
thestingsnake
Anton Shepp — $18.63
VeryLucky888
Anton Shepp — $14.65
Venusian
CTRKokoro Isomura — $11.47
omnibus-076daa
Anton Shepp — $9.73
MadridTime
CTRKokoro Isomura — $5.46
smithagent
CTRKokoro Isomura — $1.15