Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ben Shelton, while the market favors Aleksandar Kovacevic (54%). 7 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Swiss Indoors Basel: Ben Shelton vs Aleksandar Kovacevic

7 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Ben Shelton (37%) · Ben Shelton at 47¢ · $50K held · ends Nov 3

Ben Shelton47¢Aleksandar Kovacevic53¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ben Shelton

Consensus Traders

Ben Shelton 37%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$50.5K

Combined PnL

$2.8K

Smart Money Entry

82.7¢ → 46.5¢

-44% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBen Shelton at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ben Shelton

7 of 19 top traders (37%)Underdog side (market favors Aleksandar Kovacevic 54%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ben Shelton47%

Aleksandar Kovacevic54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ben Shelton7 traders

Total Value$14.7K

Total Shares17,698

Combined PnL+$17.08

Aleksandar Kovacevic12 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares22,606

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Ben Shelton — 37%Aleksandar Kovacevic — 63%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Ben Shelton. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Aleksandar Kovacevic) and the top 1000 (10 on Ben Shelton) disagree here.

whaleAleksandar Kovacevic 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpBen Shelton 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAleksandar Kovacevic 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedAleksandar Kovacevic 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Ben Shelton 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 45.7¢	$8.4K	$9.3K	+$880.62	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
└ Aleksandar Kovacevic leg	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 45.7¢	$4.8K	$5.5K	+$712.9
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 45.4¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$167.72
0X 0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793CTR	Ben Sheltonavg 84¢	$8.4K	$8.3K	-$99.93	62% 147-90 (237)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 68.9¢	$6.7K	$5.2K	$-1.5K	54% 16741-14048 (30789)
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 68.9¢	$4.6K	$3.0K	$-1.6K
└ Aleksandar Kovacevic leg	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 52.9¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$103.25
RN1ARB<$100	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 52.7¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$13.21	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
└ Aleksandar Kovacevic leg	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 52.7¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$135.47
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 46.6¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$122.25
VeryLucky888	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 16.7¢	$1.2K	$3.6K	+$2.5K	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
99 999999666544332578855667788CTR	Ben Sheltonavg 83¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$0	57% 625-467 (1092)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 80.7¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	-$359.52	52% 13489-12341 (25830)
└ Aleksandar Kovacevic leg	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 42.2¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$353.79
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 80.7¢	$1.7K	$971.07	-$713.3
PA Paul973973CTR	Ben Sheltonavg 78¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$128.21	89% 870-109 (979)
TO Tobias1909	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 54¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$17.5	57% 384-294 (678)
SC SchruteBucks	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$106.68	56% 1786-1395 (3181)
C6 C63AMG	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 54¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$15	73% 858-320 (1178)
TH thestingsnake	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 49.8¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	+$106.75	60% 3908-2649 (6557)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 66.4¢	$4.8K	$1.4K	+$27.74	53% 584-515 (1099)
└ Aleksandar Kovacevic leg	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 33.1¢	$449.47	$712.18	+$446.48
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 66.4¢	$919.21	$657.12	-$418.74
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 20.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$71	51% 1209-1141 (2350)
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 63.7¢	$573	$747	+$174
└ Aleksandar Kovacevic leg	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 20.7¢	$579	$476	-$103
TRCM	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 52¢	$836	$892.27	+$56.27	55% 3895-3129 (7024)
IL IlliascaCTR	Ben Sheltonavg 83¢	$500	$500	+$0	65% 248-134 (382)
LS LSS1CTR	Ben Sheltonavg 80¢	$408.8	$424.13	+$15.33	72% 1534-600 (2134)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 51.7¢	$375	$366.56	-$8.44	58% 187-136 (323)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 53¢	$329.8	$312.9	-$16.9	50% 24829-24525 (49354)
└ Aleksandar Kovacevic leg	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 53¢	$177.94	$179.62	+$1.68
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 53¢	$151.85	$133.28	-$18.58
HRTradingCTR	Ben Sheltonavg 82.1¢	$193.64	$195.88	+$2.24	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
tradecraft	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 45.5¢	$139.97	$160.05	+$20.08	52% 5822-5445 (11267)
0xheavy888<$100	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 16.3¢	$30.87	$99.22	+$9.76	56% 6844-5479 (12323)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 53¢	$87.84	$70.24	-$17.6	58% 18304-13452 (31756)
└ Aleksandar Kovacevic leg	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 53¢	$49.8	$47.47	-$2.33
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 82.7¢	$38.04	$22.77	-$15.27
PL PLACEYOURBETS123<$100	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 28¢	$65.45	$39.74	-$25.71	61% 50-32 (82)
EF efntrickCTR	Ben Sheltonavg 69.9¢	$125.43	$31.06	-$28.77	48% 3618-3875 (7493)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$8,420.41

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$880.62

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

Both legs:

Aleksandar Kovacevic$4,762.0645.7¢+$712.9

Ben Shelton$3,658.3645.4¢+$167.72

0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793CTR

Ben Shelton

Invested

$8,393.89

Value

$8.3K

PnL

-$99.93

Record

62%

147-90 (237)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$6,736.23

Value

$5.2K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

16741-14048 (30789)

Both legs:

Ben Shelton$4,594.0568.9¢$-1.6K

Aleksandar Kovacevic$2,142.1752.9¢+$103.25

RN1ARB<$100

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$3,709.26

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$13.21

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

Both legs:

Aleksandar Kovacevic$2,246.1552.7¢-$135.47

Ben Shelton$1,463.1246.6¢+$122.25

VeryLucky888

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$1,158.8

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

999999666544332578855667788CTR

Ben Shelton

Invested

$3,109.94

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

625-467 (1092)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$2,998.26

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$359.52

Record

52%

13489-12341 (25830)

Both legs:

Aleksandar Kovacevic$1,313.8942.2¢+$353.79

Ben Shelton$1,684.3780.7¢-$713.3

Paul973973CTR

Ben Shelton

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$128.21

Record

89%

870-109 (979)

Tobias1909

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$1,890

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$17.5

Record

57%

384-294 (678)

SchruteBucks

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$1,580.49

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$106.68

Record

56%

1786-1395 (3181)

C63AMG

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$1,620

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$15

Record

73%

858-320 (1178)

thestingsnake

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$1,744.82

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$106.75

Record

60%

3908-2649 (6557)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$4,764.02

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$27.74

Record

53%

584-515 (1099)

Both legs:

Aleksandar Kovacevic$449.4733.1¢+$446.48

Ben Shelton$919.2166.4¢-$418.74

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$1,152

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$71

Record

51%

1209-1141 (2350)

Both legs:

Ben Shelton$57363.7¢+$174

Aleksandar Kovacevic$57920.7¢-$103

TRCM

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$836

Value

$892.27

PnL

+$56.27

Record

55%

3895-3129 (7024)

IlliascaCTR

Ben Shelton

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

248-134 (382)

LSS1CTR

Ben Shelton

Invested

$408.8

Value

$424.13

PnL

+$15.33

Record

72%

1534-600 (2134)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$375

Value

$366.56

PnL

-$8.44

Record

58%

187-136 (323)

sentrioARB<$100

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$329.8

Value

$312.9

PnL

-$16.9

Record

50%

24829-24525 (49354)

Both legs:

Aleksandar Kovacevic$177.9453¢+$1.68

Ben Shelton$151.8553¢-$18.58

HRTradingCTR

Ben Shelton

Invested

$193.64

Value

$195.88

PnL

+$2.24

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

tradecraft

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$139.97

Value

$160.05

PnL

+$20.08

Record

52%

5822-5445 (11267)

0xheavy888<$100

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$30.87

Value

$99.22

PnL

+$9.76

Record

56%

6844-5479 (12323)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$87.84

Value

$70.24

PnL

-$17.6

Record

58%

18304-13452 (31756)

Both legs:

Aleksandar Kovacevic$49.853¢-$2.33

Ben Shelton$38.0482.7¢-$15.27

PLACEYOURBETS123<$100

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$65.45

Value

$39.74

PnL

-$25.71

Record

61%

50-32 (82)

efntrickCTR

Ben Shelton

Invested

$125.43

Value

$31.06

PnL

-$28.77

Record

48%

3618-3875 (7493)

Research grade

NeutralBen Shelton at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Ben Shelton

7 of 19 top traders (37%)Underdog side (market favors Aleksandar Kovacevic 54%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Ben Shelton. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Aleksandar Kovacevic) and the top 1000 (10 on Ben Shelton) disagree here.

whaleAleksandar Kovacevic 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpBen Shelton 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAleksandar Kovacevic 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedAleksandar Kovacevic 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Ben Shelton 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ben Shelton wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.