Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Carlos Alcaraz (25%) · Carlos Alcaraz at 78¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Ben Shelton23¢Carlos Alcaraz77¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Carlos Alcaraz

Consensus Traders

Carlos Alcaraz 25%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$54.15

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 77.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCarlos Alcaraz at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Carlos Alcaraz

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ben Shelton23%

Carlos Alcaraz78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Carlos Alcaraz3 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,787

Combined PnL+$29.75

Ben Shelton9 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares8,984

Combined PnL+$24.39

Carlos Alcaraz — 25%Ben Shelton — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
K5 k56	Carlos Alcarazavg 78.8¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$50.14	58% 902-666 (1568)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Ben Sheltonavg 22¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$22.73	48% 4060-4345 (8405)
0xheavy888	Carlos Alcarazavg 77¢	$392.6	$395.15	+$2.55	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
GC GC-PCTR	Ben Sheltonavg 22¢	$347.45	$355.35	+$7.9	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
NM NM-PCTR	Ben Sheltonavg 22¢	$347.32	$355.22	+$7.89	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
VeryLucky888	Carlos Alcarazavg 75.5¢	$2.4K	$331.9	+$77.35	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
PU purplegattoCTR	Ben Sheltonavg 23¢	$139.25	$136.22	-$3.03	49% 6418-6597 (13015)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 23.7¢	$87.52	$83.15	-$4.37	24% 8014-25858 (33872)
WE westing.v1CTR<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 25.9¢	$54.4	$47.19	-$7.21	— 0-2 (2)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 22¢	$12.62	$12.91	+$0.29	54% 6333-5398 (11731)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 22¢	$6.82	$6.97	+$0.15	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 22¢	$1.67	$1.71	+$0.04	50% 26504-26107 (52611)

k56

Carlos Alcaraz

Invested

$3,033.09

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$50.14

Record

58%

902-666 (1568)

NotradecopyCTR

Ben Shelton

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$22.73

Record

48%

4060-4345 (8405)

0xheavy888

Carlos Alcaraz

Invested

$392.6

Value

$395.15

PnL

+$2.55

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

GC-PCTR

Ben Shelton

Invested

$347.45

Value

$355.35

PnL

+$7.9

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

NM-PCTR

Ben Shelton

Invested

$347.32

Value

$355.22

PnL

+$7.89

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

VeryLucky888

Carlos Alcaraz

Invested

$2,440.34

Value

$331.9

PnL

+$77.35

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

purplegattoCTR

Ben Shelton

Invested

$139.25

Value

$136.22

PnL

-$3.03

Record

49%

6418-6597 (13015)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$87.52

Value

$83.15

PnL

-$4.37

Record

24%

8014-25858 (33872)

westing.v1CTR<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$54.4

Value

$47.19

PnL

-$7.21

Record

—

0-2 (2)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$12.62

Value

$12.91

PnL

+$0.29

Record

54%

6333-5398 (11731)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$6.82

Value

$6.97

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

sentrioCTR<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$1.67

Value

$1.71

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

Research grade

NeutralCarlos Alcaraz at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Carlos Alcaraz

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Carlos Alcaraz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.