Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Karen Khachanov
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Karen Khachanov (56%) · Karen Khachanov at 61¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9
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Neutral
Karen Khachanov
9
Karen Khachanov 56%
$3.0K
$20.92
60.3¢ → 60.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralKaren Khachanov at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KC Kch-Temp | Karen Khachanovavg 60¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$18.28 | 50% 225-221 (446) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Denis Shapovalovavg 39¢ | $895.76 | $895.76 | -$0 | 72% 6934-2737 (9671) |
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3 | Karen Khachanovavg 61¢ | $306.93 | $301.9 | +$0 | 45% 404-499 (903) |
38 38791873984189 | Karen Khachanovavg 60.3¢ | $297.88 | $301.38 | +$3.5 | 47% 12972-14546 (27518) |
LI LilybaeumCTR | Denis Shapovalovavg 39¢ | $281.47 | $281.33 | -$0.14 | 61% 13840-8746 (22586) |
MA manoamano<$100 | Karen Khachanovavg 61¢ | $49.11 | $49.11 | +$0 | 51% 526-504 (1030) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Denis Shapovalovavg 39¢ | $39.78 | $39.78 | -$0.51 | 58% 29905-21964 (51869) |
DV dv-pm<$100 | Karen Khachanovavg 61¢ | $28.06 | $27.83 | -$0.23 | 50% 2924-2885 (5809) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Denis Shapovalovavg 39¢ | $1.95 | $1.98 | +$0.03 | 50% 24998-24716 (49714) |
Invested
$1,096.63
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$18.28
Record
50%
225-221 (446)
Invested
$895.76
Value
$895.76
PnL
-$0
Record
72%
6934-2737 (9671)
Invested
$306.93
Value
$301.9
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
404-499 (903)
Invested
$297.88
Value
$301.38
PnL
+$3.5
Record
47%
12972-14546 (27518)
Invested
$281.47
Value
$281.33
PnL
-$0.14
Record
61%
13840-8746 (22586)
Invested
$49.11
Value
$49.11
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
526-504 (1030)
Invested
$39.78
Value
$39.78
PnL
-$0.51
Record
58%
29905-21964 (51869)
Invested
$28.06
Value
$27.83
PnL
-$0.23
Record
50%
2924-2885 (5809)
Invested
$1.95
Value
$1.98
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
24998-24716 (49714)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Kch-Temp
Karen Khachanov — $1.1K
AnonymousUsername
CTRDenis Shapovalov — $895.76
0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3
Karen Khachanov — $301.9
38791873984189
Karen Khachanov — $301.38
Lilybaeum
CTRDenis Shapovalov — $281.33
manoamano
Karen Khachanov — $49.11
LeLynxMalynx
CTRDenis Shapovalov — $39.78
dv-pm
Karen Khachanov — $27.83
sentrio
CTRDenis Shapovalov — $1.98