Taranto: Matteo Sciahbasi vs Arvid Nordquist
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Arvid Nordquist (50%) · Arvid Nordquist at 69¢ · $416 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Arvid Nordquist
2
Arvid Nordquist 50%
1 arb excluded
$416.12
-$4.41
Research grade
NeutralArvid Nordquist at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100 | Matteo Sciahbasiavg 45.6¢ | $544 | $393.83 | -$150.17 | 52% 13925-12698 (26623) |
| └ Matteo Sciahbasi leg | Matteo Sciahbasiavg 45.6¢ | $374.64 | $254.64 | -$120 | |
| └ Arvid Nordquist leg | Arvid Nordquistavg 84¢ | $169.36 | $139.19 | -$30.18 | |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Arvid Nordquistavg 56¢ | $10.54 | $12.99 | +$0.09 | 55% 1777-1466 (3243) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Matteo Sciahbasiavg 46¢ | $13.8 | $9.3 | -$4.5 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
Invested
$544
Value
$393.83
PnL
-$150.17
Record
52%
13925-12698 (26623)
Both legs:
Invested
$10.54
Value
$12.99
PnL
+$0.09
Record
55%
1777-1466 (3243)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$9.3
PnL
-$4.5
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.