Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Tristan Schoolkate, while the market favors Jie Cui (100%). 5 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ningbo: Tristan Schoolkate vs Jie Cui

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Tristan Schoolkate (38%) · Tristan Schoolkate at 0.1¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 5

Tristan Schoolkate<1¢Jie Cui>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Tristan Schoolkate

Consensus Traders

Tristan Schoolkate 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.5K

Combined PnL

-$254.58

Smart Money Entry

22.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidTristan Schoolkate at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tristan Schoolkate

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Jie Cui 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tristan Schoolkate0%

Jie Cui100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tristan Schoolkate5 traders

Total Value$10.2K

Total Shares49,672

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Jie Cui8 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares14,818

Combined PnL+$765.32

Tristan Schoolkate — 38%Jie Cui — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KK kkookkooCTR	Tristan Schoolkateavg 17.4¢	$6.2K	$5.5K	-$675.62	51% 586-571 (1157)
LA landighertz	Jie Cuiavg 99.9¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$1.66	99% 1128-4 (1132)
TH thestingsnake	Jie Cuiavg 65.7¢	$2.1K	$2.8K	+$674.9	60% 3993-2684 (6677)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Tristan Schoolkateavg 32.7¢	$2.9K	$2.6K	-$278.02	38% 478-793 (1271)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Jie Cuiavg 72.7¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	-$168.23	52% 13642-12471 (26113)
RN1	Jie Cuiavg 35¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$245.47	54% 56016-48150 (104166)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Jie Cuiavg 68.8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$20.85	51% 1350-1294 (2644)
└ Jie Cui leg	Jie Cuiavg 68.8¢	$942.82	$883.48	-$59.35
└ Tristan Schoolkate leg	Tristan Schoolkateavg 30¢	$210	$248.5	+$38.5
0X 0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945CTR	Tristan Schoolkateavg 30¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$18.13	72% 938-367 (1305)
VeryLucky888CTR	Tristan Schoolkateavg 63.7¢	$1.0K	$975.15	-$50.8	58% 41203-29875 (71078)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Tristan Schoolkateavg 53.4¢	$194.27	$206.12	+$11.85	49% 18813-19212 (38025)
└ Tristan Schoolkate leg	Tristan Schoolkateavg 53.4¢	$141.32	$133.73	-$7.59
└ Jie Cui leg	Jie Cuiavg 36.2¢	$52.95	$72.39	+$19.44
BI BillBenter2026	Jie Cuiavg 62.8¢	$125.58	$135	+$9.42	58% 18484-13569 (32053)
PA pauleta23<$100	Jie Cuiavg 69¢	$28	$37.94	+$9.94	67% 23201-11598 (34799)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Jie Cuiavg 44.1¢	$44.78	$37.05	-$7.73	50% 3757-3733 (7490)
0X 0xF8164A94e27CdCeD0cC975e21308fB099B2D0433-1772692168144CTR<$100	Tristan Schoolkateavg 32¢	$3	$5.67	+$2.67	38% 154-252 (406)
HRTrading<$100	Jie Cuiavg 68¢	$1.19	$1.08	-$0.11	52% 3684-3346 (7030)

kkookkooCTR

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$6,200

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$675.62

Record

51%

586-571 (1157)

landighertz

Jie Cui

Invested

$3,320.57

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.66

Record

99%

1128-4 (1132)

thestingsnake

Jie Cui

Invested

$2,134.65

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$674.9

Record

60%

3993-2684 (6677)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$2,869

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$278.02

Record

38%

478-793 (1271)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Jie Cui

Invested

$2,616.39

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$168.23

Record

52%

13642-12471 (26113)

RN1

Jie Cui

Invested

$1,909.22

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$245.47

Record

54%

56016-48150 (104166)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Jie Cui

Invested

$1,152.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$20.85

Record

51%

1350-1294 (2644)

Both legs:

Jie Cui$942.8268.8¢-$59.35

Tristan Schoolkate$21030¢+$38.5

0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945CTR

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$1,088.05

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$18.13

Record

72%

938-367 (1305)

VeryLucky888CTR

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$1,025.95

Value

$975.15

PnL

-$50.8

Record

58%

41203-29875 (71078)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$194.27

Value

$206.12

PnL

+$11.85

Record

49%

18813-19212 (38025)

Both legs:

Tristan Schoolkate$141.3253.4¢-$7.59

Jie Cui$52.9536.2¢+$19.44

BillBenter2026

Jie Cui

Invested

$125.58

Value

$135

PnL

+$9.42

Record

58%

18484-13569 (32053)

pauleta23<$100

Jie Cui

Invested

$28

Value

$37.94

PnL

+$9.94

Record

67%

23201-11598 (34799)

NatoAlfista<$100

Jie Cui

Invested

$44.78

Value

$37.05

PnL

-$7.73

Record

50%

3757-3733 (7490)

0xF8164A94e27CdCeD0cC975e21308fB099B2D0433-1772692168144CTR<$100

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

Value

$5.67

PnL

+$2.67

Record

38%

154-252 (406)

HRTrading<$100

Jie Cui

Invested

$1.19

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.11

Record

52%

3684-3346 (7030)

Research grade

AvoidTristan Schoolkate at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Tristan Schoolkate

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Jie Cui 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tristan Schoolkate wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.