Sydney: Harrison Satara vs Dominik Palan

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Dominik Palan (50%) · Dominik Palan at 90¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Harrison Satara11¢Dominik Palan89¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dominik Palan

Consensus Traders

Dominik Palan 50%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$3.77

Smart Money Entry

65.6¢ → 89.5¢

+37% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDominik Palan at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dominik Palan

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Harrison Satara11%

Dominik Palan90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dominik Palan7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,551

Combined PnL-$12.19

Harrison Satara7 traders

Total Value$116.58

Total Shares1,012

Combined PnL+$15.96

Dominik Palan — 50%Harrison Satara — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Dominik Palanavg 50¢	$1.1K	$912.22	+$1.97	51% 954-911 (1865)
VE Venusian	Dominik Palanavg 93¢	$248.53	$236.5	-$12.03	37% 1136-1943 (3079)
SU suntori	Dominik Palanavg 89¢	$190.47	$188.33	-$2.14	46% 2924-3473 (6397)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Harrison Sataraavg 11.1¢	$57.49	$54.16	-$3.33	38% 1162-1897 (3059)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Harrison Sataraavg 7.4¢	$30.03	$48.95	+$18.92	50% 2654-2620 (5274)
LI Limousin<$100	Dominik Palanavg 91¢	$46.01	$45.45	-$0.56	37% 1136-1917 (3053)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Dominik Palanavg 86.1¢	$43.92	$44.63	+$0.7	34% 225-440 (665)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Dominik Palanavg 88¢	$10.85	$10.92	+$0.06	45% 423-515 (938)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Dominik Palanavg 76¢	$9.99	$9.8	-$0.2	45% 182-221 (403)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Harrison Sataraavg 24¢	$5.87	$6.24	+$0.37	45% 82-100 (182)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Harrison Sataraavg 14.3¢	$3.02	$2.64	-$0.38	47% 3487-3859 (7346)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Harrison Sataraavg 8.8¢	$1.97	$2.24	+$0.28	49% 564-591 (1155)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Harrison Sataraavg 11¢	$1.65	$1.73	+$0.08	37% 1155-1943 (3098)
RN1CTR<$100	Harrison Sataraavg 12¢	$0.6	$0.63	+$0.03	55% 5637-4683 (10320)

NotJump

Dominik Palan

Invested

$1,050

Value

$912.22

PnL

+$1.97

Record

51%

954-911 (1865)

Venusian

Dominik Palan

Invested

$248.53

Value

$236.5

PnL

-$12.03

Record

37%

1136-1943 (3079)

suntori

Dominik Palan

Invested

$190.47

Value

$188.33

PnL

-$2.14

Record

46%

2924-3473 (6397)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Harrison Satara

Invested

$57.49

Value

$54.16

PnL

-$3.33

Record

38%

1162-1897 (3059)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Harrison Satara

Invested

$30.03

Value

$48.95

PnL

+$18.92

Record

50%

2654-2620 (5274)

Limousin<$100

Dominik Palan

Invested

$46.01

Value

$45.45

PnL

-$0.56

Record

37%

1136-1917 (3053)

thestingsnake<$100

Dominik Palan

Invested

$43.92

Value

$44.63

PnL

+$0.7

Record

34%

225-440 (665)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Dominik Palan

Invested

$10.85

Value

$10.92

PnL

+$0.06

Record

45%

423-515 (938)

glennyorkshire<$100

Dominik Palan

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

45%

182-221 (403)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Harrison Satara

Invested

$5.87

Value

$6.24

PnL

+$0.37

Record

45%

82-100 (182)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Harrison Satara

Invested

$3.02

Value

$2.64

PnL

-$0.38

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Harrison Satara

Invested

$1.97

Value

$2.24

PnL

+$0.28

Record

49%

564-591 (1155)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Harrison Satara

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.73

PnL

+$0.08

Record

37%

1155-1943 (3098)

RN1CTR<$100

Harrison Satara

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.63

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

5637-4683 (10320)

Research grade

NeutralDominik Palan at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Dominik Palan

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dominik Palan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.