Taipei: Kasidit Samrej vs Koki Matsuda

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Kasidit Samrej (63%) · Kasidit Samrej at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Kasidit Samrej>99¢Koki Matsuda<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kasidit Samrej

Consensus Traders

Kasidit Samrej 63%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$96.88

Smart Money Entry

81.7¢ → 100¢

+22% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralKasidit Samrej at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kasidit Samrej

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kasidit Samrej100%

Koki Matsuda0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kasidit Samrej5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,728

Combined PnL+$19.13

Koki Matsuda3 traders

Total Value$110.52

Total Shares707

Combined PnL-$116

Kasidit Samrej — 63%Koki Matsuda — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Kasidit Samrej. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Koki Matsuda) and the top 1000 (4 on Kasidit Samrej) disagree here.

whaleKasidit Samrej 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpKasidit Samrej 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKasidit Samrej 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedKoki Matsuda 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Kasidit Samrej 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Kasidit Samrejavg 79.4¢	$685.61	$627.41	-$58.2	52% 13920-12693 (26613)
UP UpTheBlues	Kasidit Samrejavg 75¢	$514.49	$591.01	+$76.53	59% 46853-33124 (79977)
TH thestingsnake	Kasidit Samrejavg 98.7¢	$349.22	$350.03	+$0.81	60% 4095-2761 (6856)
VeryLucky888CTR	Koki Matsudaavg 41¢	$179.03	$109.17	-$69.87	58% 42636-31031 (73667)
KE Kev69<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 58¢	$6.97	$8.53	+$0	54% 580-494 (1074)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Koki Matsudaavg 18¢	$46.89	$1.3	-$45.59	48% 1054-1158 (2212)
HRTrading<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 82¢	$1.23	$1.22	-$0.01	53% 5577-5013 (10590)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Koki Matsudaavg 6¢	$0.6	$0.05	-$0.55	48% 8915-9527 (18442)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$685.61

Value

$627.41

PnL

-$58.2

Record

52%

13920-12693 (26613)

UpTheBlues

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$514.49

Value

$591.01

PnL

+$76.53

Record

59%

46853-33124 (79977)

thestingsnake

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$349.22

Value

$350.03

PnL

+$0.81

Record

60%

4095-2761 (6856)

VeryLucky888CTR

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$179.03

Value

$109.17

PnL

-$69.87

Record

58%

42636-31031 (73667)

Kev69<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$6.97

Value

$8.53

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

580-494 (1074)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$46.89

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$45.59

Record

48%

1054-1158 (2212)

HRTrading<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$1.23

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

5577-5013 (10590)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.55

Record

48%

8915-9527 (18442)

Research grade

NeutralKasidit Samrej at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Kasidit Samrej

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Kasidit Samrej. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Koki Matsuda) and the top 1000 (4 on Kasidit Samrej) disagree here.

whaleKasidit Samrej 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpKasidit Samrej 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKasidit Samrej 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedKoki Matsuda 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Kasidit Samrej 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kasidit Samrej wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.