Kobe: Dimitris Sakellaridis vs Toya Ishikawa

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Dimitris Sakellaridis (50%) · Dimitris Sakellaridis at 84¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 22

Dimitris Sakellaridis84¢Toya Ishikawa16¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Consensus Traders

Dimitris Sakellaridis 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

-$202.34

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 83.5¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDimitris Sakellaridis at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dimitris Sakellaridis

6 of 12 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Dimitris Sakellaridis84%

Toya Ishikawa17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dimitris Sakellaridis6 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares6,221

Combined PnL+$41.87

Toya Ishikawa6 traders

Total Value$705.64

Total Shares2,917

Combined PnL-$244.21

Dimitris Sakellaridis — 50%Toya Ishikawa — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Dimitris Sakellaridisavg 83¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$21.02	37% 1279-2142 (3421)
NO NotJump	Dimitris Sakellaridisavg 50.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0.22	51% 1040-1018 (2058)
TH thestingsnake	Dimitris Sakellaridisavg 82.3¢	$899.74	$912.4	+$12.66	34% 232-441 (673)
LI LimousinCTR	Toya Ishikawaavg 37.5¢	$953.62	$611.15	-$342.47	38% 1261-2087 (3348)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Dimitris Sakellaridisavg 76.8¢	$570.91	$410.72	-$30.02	32% 242-505 (747)
└ Dimitris Sakellaridis leg	Dimitris Sakellaridisavg 76.8¢	$331.84	$261.46	-$82.27
└ Toya Ishikawa leg	Toya Ishikawaavg 25.7¢	$97.01	$149.26	+$52.26
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Dimitris Sakellaridisavg 61¢	$796.8	$393.01	+$193.35	49% 593-624 (1217)
└ Dimitris Sakellaridis leg	Dimitris Sakellaridisavg 61¢	$183.61	$251.33	+$1.84
└ Toya Ishikawa leg	Toya Ishikawaavg 17¢	$145.97	$141.67	+$191.52
VE VenusianARB<$100	Toya Ishikawaavg 26.3¢	$406.99	$253.06	-$82.93	38% 1284-2117 (3401)
└ Toya Ishikawa leg	Toya Ishikawaavg 26.3¢	$186.57	$138.57	-$48
└ Dimitris Sakellaridis leg	Dimitris Sakellaridisavg 91¢	$129.42	$114.49	-$34.93
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Toya Ishikawaavg 17¢	$907.31	$208.6	+$194.72	48% 3772-4126 (7898)
└ Toya Ishikawa leg	Toya Ishikawaavg 17¢	$170.88	$165.83	+$289.08
└ Dimitris Sakellaridis leg	Dimitris Sakellaridisavg 61.2¢	$31.33	$42.77	-$94.36
TH thirdt1meCTR	Toya Ishikawaavg 16.1¢	$177.08	$81.06	+$97.51	48% 346-375 (721)
MA MadridTime<$100	Dimitris Sakellaridisavg 72¢	$70.78	$79.14	+$8.36	38% 1289-2093 (3382)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Dimitris Sakellaridisavg 66.2¢	$54.18	$58.32	+$4.14	45% 438-536 (974)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Dimitris Sakellaridisavg 91.7¢	$13.75	$9.23	-$4.53	31% 279-609 (888)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Toya Ishikawaavg 8¢	$6.38	$6.38	+$0	45% 87-107 (194)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Toya Ishikawaavg 10¢	$5	$5.75	+$0.75	40% 678-998 (1676)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Toya Ishikawaavg 17¢	$1.01	$0.98	-$0.03	52% 202-183 (385)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Toya Ishikawaavg 6¢	$0.3	$0.33	+$0.03	50% 2776-2756 (5532)

LightParadox

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Invested

$3,223.39

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$21.02

Record

37%

1279-2142 (3421)

NotJump

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Invested

$1,062.84

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0.22

Record

51%

1040-1018 (2058)

thestingsnake

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Invested

$899.74

Value

$912.4

PnL

+$12.66

Record

34%

232-441 (673)

LimousinCTR

Toya Ishikawa

Invested

$953.62

Value

$611.15

PnL

-$342.47

Record

38%

1261-2087 (3348)

babybellsARB<$100

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Invested

$570.91

Value

$410.72

PnL

-$30.02

Record

32%

242-505 (747)

Both legs:

Dimitris Sakellaridis$331.8476.8¢-$82.27

Toya Ishikawa$97.0125.7¢+$52.26

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Invested

$796.8

Value

$393.01

PnL

+$193.35

Record

49%

593-624 (1217)

Both legs:

Dimitris Sakellaridis$183.6161¢+$1.84

Toya Ishikawa$145.9717¢+$191.52

VenusianARB<$100

Toya Ishikawa

Invested

$406.99

Value

$253.06

PnL

-$82.93

Record

38%

1284-2117 (3401)

Both legs:

Toya Ishikawa$186.5726.3¢-$48

Dimitris Sakellaridis$129.4291¢-$34.93

38791873984189ARB<$100

Toya Ishikawa

Invested

$907.31

Value

$208.6

PnL

+$194.72

Record

48%

3772-4126 (7898)

Both legs:

Toya Ishikawa$170.8817¢+$289.08

Dimitris Sakellaridis$31.3361.2¢-$94.36

thirdt1meCTR

Toya Ishikawa

Invested

$177.08

Value

$81.06

PnL

+$97.51

Record

48%

346-375 (721)

MadridTime<$100

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Invested

$70.78

Value

$79.14

PnL

+$8.36

Record

38%

1289-2093 (3382)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Invested

$54.18

Value

$58.32

PnL

+$4.14

Record

45%

438-536 (974)

BillBenter2026<$100

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Invested

$13.75

Value

$9.23

PnL

-$4.53

Record

31%

279-609 (888)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Toya Ishikawa

Invested

$6.38

Value

$6.38

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

87-107 (194)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Toya Ishikawa

Invested

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

40%

678-998 (1676)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Toya Ishikawa

Invested

$1.01

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

202-183 (385)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Toya Ishikawa

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.33

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

2776-2756 (5532)

Research grade

NeutralDimitris Sakellaridis at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Dimitris Sakellaridis

6 of 12 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dimitris Sakellaridis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.