Set Handicap: Casper Ruud (-1.5) vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (+1.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Casper Ruud (50%) · Casper Ruud at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 9

Casper Ruud>99¢Juan Manuel Cerundolo<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Casper Ruud

Consensus Traders

Casper Ruud 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$18.08

Smart Money Entry

58.4¢ → 100¢

+71% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCasper Ruud at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Casper Ruud

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Casper Ruud100%

Juan Manuel Cerundolo0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Casper Ruud4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,496

Combined PnL-$132.35

Juan Manuel Cerundolo4 traders

Total Value$825.52

Total Shares1,677

Combined PnL+$150.43

Casper Ruud — 50%Juan Manuel Cerundolo — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Casper Ruud. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCasper Ruud 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Casper Ruud 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192	Casper Ruudavg 50.6¢	$575	$568.37	-$6.63	60% 132-89 (221)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 50¢	$508.42	$509.29	+$25.41	46% 9230-10942 (20172)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Casper Ruudavg 70¢	$574.79	$410.71	-$164.08	53% 486-432 (918)
AS astapzippo	Casper Ruudavg 47.5¢	$189.97	$279.95	+$89.98	56% 2173-1716 (3889)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 24¢	$132.12	$275.25	+$143.13	46% 4536-5349 (9885)
MI mishipolis	Casper Ruudavg 84.7¢	$200.91	$149.29	-$51.62	50% 4636-4567 (9203)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Casper Ruudavg 48¢	$142.54	$147.13	+$4.38	50% 19821-20164 (39985)
└ Casper Ruud leg	Casper Ruudavg 48¢	$73.88	$106.2	+$30.78
└ Juan Manuel Cerundolo leg	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 52¢	$68.66	$40.93	-$26.41
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 50¢	$52.97	$34.96	-$18.01	58% 4102-2910 (7012)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 30¢	$6.13	$6.02	-$0.1	42% 2303-3133 (5436)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192

Casper Ruud

Invested

$575

Value

$568.37

PnL

-$6.63

Record

60%

132-89 (221)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$508.42

Value

$509.29

PnL

+$25.41

Record

46%

9230-10942 (20172)

oxe78sh4w98

Casper Ruud

Invested

$574.79

Value

$410.71

PnL

-$164.08

Record

53%

486-432 (918)

astapzippo

Casper Ruud

Invested

$189.97

Value

$279.95

PnL

+$89.98

Record

56%

2173-1716 (3889)

SlickRick123CTR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$132.12

Value

$275.25

PnL

+$143.13

Record

46%

4536-5349 (9885)

mishipolis

Casper Ruud

Invested

$200.91

Value

$149.29

PnL

-$51.62

Record

50%

4636-4567 (9203)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$142.54

Value

$147.13

PnL

+$4.38

Record

50%

19821-20164 (39985)

Both legs:

Casper Ruud$73.8848¢+$30.78

Juan Manuel Cerundolo$68.6652¢-$26.41

Bagwell306CTR<$100

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$52.97

Value

$34.96

PnL

-$18.01

Record

58%

4102-2910 (7012)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$6.13

Value

$6.02

PnL

-$0.1

Record

42%

2303-3133 (5436)

Research grade

NeutralCasper Ruud at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Casper Ruud

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Casper Ruud. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCasper Ruud 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Casper Ruud 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Casper Ruud wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.