Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Juan Manuel Cerundolo — but Casper Ruud won instead.

Set 1 Winner: Casper Ruud vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Resolved Casper Ruud. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Juan Manuel Cerundolo. The smart money was wrong.

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Juan Manuel Cerundolo 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Casper Ruud100%

Juan Manuel Cerundolo0%

Juan Manuel Cerundolo4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares7,551

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Casper Ruud2 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,766

Combined PnL+$910.14

Juan Manuel Cerundolo — 67%Casper Ruud — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IV Ivan948CTR	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 33.7¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K	42% 82-114 (196)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Casper Ruudavg 66¢	$1.5K	$2.3K	+$793.9	48% 1153-1269 (2422)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 3¢	$50.13	—	-$50.13	46% 4536-5349 (9885)
poshposh	Casper Ruudavg 66.9¢	$315.06	$431.3	+$116.24	58% 11442-8290 (19732)
MI mishipolisARB<$100	Casper Ruudavg 67¢	$216	$300	+$84	50% 4636-4567 (9203)
└ Casper Ruud leg	Casper Ruudavg 67¢	$201	$300	+$99
└ Juan Manuel Cerundolo leg	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 5¢	$15	—	-$15
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 17.7¢	$34.45	—	-$34.45	47% 10059-11176 (21235)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 3¢	$5.28	—	-$5.28	46% 7938-9258 (17196)