Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Casper Ruud (50%) · Casper Ruud at 72¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Casper Ruud
4
Casper Ruud 50%
$3.6K
-$164.2
75¢ → 72¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralCasper Ruud at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
K5 k56 | Casper Ruudavg 75¢ | $3.0K | $2.9K | -$139.8 | 57% 890-659 (1549) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 29¢ | $710.79 | $686.28 | -$24.51 | 72% 6934-2737 (9671) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Casper Ruudavg 71¢ | $16.33 | $16.45 | +$0.12 | 55% 7454-5978 (13432) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 28¢ | $8.43 | $8.43 | -$0 | 47% 12954-14535 (27489) |
Invested
$3,000
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$139.8
Record
57%
890-659 (1549)
Invested
$710.79
Value
$686.28
PnL
-$24.51
Record
72%
6934-2737 (9671)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$16.33
Value
$16.45
PnL
+$0.12
Record
55%
7454-5978 (13432)
Invested
$8.43
Value
$8.43
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
12954-14535 (27489)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.