Set Handicap: Holger Rune (-1.5) vs Valentin Vacherot (+1.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Valentin Vacherot (50%) · Valentin Vacherot at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Valentin Vacherot
4
Valentin Vacherot 50%
$4.2K
-$233.79
99.8¢ → 99.1¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralValentin Vacherot at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Valentin Vacherot. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO Novelty8 | Valentin Vacherotavg 99.9¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | -$31.21 | 71% 631-258 (889) |
MI mishipolis | Valentin Vacherotavg 99.1¢ | $471.3 | $299.16 | -$125.82 | 50% 4506-4439 (8945) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR | Holger Runeavg 29¢ | $82.8 | $5 | -$77.79 | 53% 3165-2784 (5949) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Holger Runeavg 33¢ | $34.32 | $0.94 | +$1.04 | 58% 28414-20974 (49388) |
Invested
$3,897.72
Value
$3.9K
PnL
-$31.21
Record
71%
631-258 (889)
Invested
$471.3
Value
$299.16
PnL
-$125.82
Record
50%
4506-4439 (8945)
Invested
$82.8
Value
$5
PnL
-$77.79
Record
53%
3165-2784 (5949)
Invested
$34.32
Value
$0.94
PnL
+$1.04
Record
58%
28414-20974 (49388)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.