Set 1 Winner: Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Valentin Vacherot (50%) · Valentin Vacherot at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 6

Holger Rune<1¢Valentin Vacherot>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Valentin Vacherot

Consensus Traders

Valentin Vacherot 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$818.64

Smart Money Entry

81.4¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralValentin Vacherot at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Valentin Vacherot

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Holger Rune0%

Valentin Vacherot100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Valentin Vacherot3 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,384

Combined PnL+$596.4

Holger Rune3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,325

Combined PnL+$222.23

Valentin Vacherot — 50%Holger Rune — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO looppau	Valentin Vacherotavg 99.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$1.25	99% 10785-63 (10848)
poshposh	Valentin Vacherotavg 60.9¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$382.3	59% 9914-6887 (16801)
VeryLucky888CTR	Holger Runeavg 54¢	$823.5	$846.38	+$22.88	58% 41488-30106 (71594)
TO topdogbigboi	Valentin Vacherotavg 41.7¢	$172.09	$384.95	+$212.85	38% 3185-5189 (8374)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Valentin Vacherotavg 54¢	$288.42	$286.8	-$1.62	48% 753-814 (1567)
└ Valentin Vacherot leg	Valentin Vacherotavg 54¢	$187	$202.62	+$15.62
└ Holger Rune leg	Holger Runeavg 50¢	$101.42	$84.18	-$17.24
MI mishipolisCTR	Holger Runeavg 50¢	$414	$280.67	+$171.86	50% 4505-4439 (8944)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Holger Runeavg 50¢	$250	$277.5	+$27.5	59% 30364-21075 (51439)

looppau

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$2,497.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.25

Record

99%

10785-63 (10848)

poshposh

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$1,034.36

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$382.3

Record

59%

9914-6887 (16801)

VeryLucky888CTR

Holger Rune

Invested

$823.5

Value

$846.38

PnL

+$22.88

Record

58%

41488-30106 (71594)

topdogbigboi

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$172.09

Value

$384.95

PnL

+$212.85

Record

38%

3185-5189 (8374)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$288.42

Value

$286.8

PnL

-$1.62

Record

48%

753-814 (1567)

Both legs:

Valentin Vacherot$18754¢+$15.62

Holger Rune$101.4250¢-$17.24

mishipolisCTR

Holger Rune

Invested

$414

Value

$280.67

PnL

+$171.86

Record

50%

4505-4439 (8944)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Holger Rune

Invested

$250

Value

$277.5

PnL

+$27.5

Record

59%

30364-21075 (51439)

Research grade

NeutralValentin Vacherot at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Valentin Vacherot

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Valentin Vacherot wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.