Sioux Falls: Mees Rottgering vs Aidan Mayo

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Aidan Mayo (45%) · Aidan Mayo at 56¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 6

Mees Rottgering44¢Aidan Mayo56¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aidan Mayo

Consensus Traders

Aidan Mayo 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

70.4¢ → 56.5¢

-20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAidan Mayo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aidan Mayo

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Mees Rottgering44%

Aidan Mayo56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aidan Mayo5 traders

Total Value$28.5K

Total Shares42,962

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Mees Rottgering6 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares21,556

Combined PnL-$24.25

Aidan Mayo — 45%Mees Rottgering — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Aidan Mayo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAidan Mayo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMees Rottgering 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedAidan Mayo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Aidan Mayo 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KK kkookkoo	Aidan Mayoavg 70.7¢	$25.5K	$24.5K	-$989.27	51% 595-575 (1170)
RN1CTR	Mees Rottgeringavg 29.3¢	$5.1K	$5.5K	+$370.93	54% 56326-48479 (104805)
UP UpTheBlues	Aidan Mayoavg 68.4¢	$4.0K	$3.3K	-$670.07	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 64.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$69.41	52% 13728-12531 (26259)
└ Aidan Mayo leg	Aidan Mayoavg 64.1¢	$686.62	$728.91	+$42.29
└ Mees Rottgering leg	Mees Rottgeringavg 29.8¢	$370.64	$397.76	+$27.12
MR MrDoucheCTR	Mees Rottgeringavg 41.7¢	$1.1K	$835.39	-$253.27	82% 1685-358 (2043)
tradecraftCTR	Mees Rottgeringavg 40¢	$802	$641.6	-$160.4	51% 5979-5671 (11650)
TH thestingsnake	Aidan Mayoavg 69.7¢	$705.19	$571.66	-$133.53	60% 4037-2727 (6764)
RE RebornAthenaCTR	Mees Rottgeringavg 49.2¢	$400	$402.09	+$2.09	53% 2003-1799 (3802)
38 38791873984189CTR	Mees Rottgeringavg 31.4¢	$541.81	$366.38	+$5.41	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 62.7¢	$82.34	$74.25	-$8.09	58% 18584-13649 (32233)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Mees Rottgeringavg 26.5¢	$53.14	$64.13	+$10.99	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
TRCM<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 61.4¢	$30.7	$34	+$3.3	55% 3938-3177 (7115)

kkookkoo

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$25,469.27

Value

$24.5K

PnL

-$989.27

Record

51%

595-575 (1170)

RN1CTR

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$5,129.74

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$370.93

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

UpTheBlues

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$4,018.79

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$670.07

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$1,057.26

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$69.41

Record

52%

13728-12531 (26259)

Both legs:

Aidan Mayo$686.6264.1¢+$42.29

Mees Rottgering$370.6429.8¢+$27.12

MrDoucheCTR

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$1,088.66

Value

$835.39

PnL

-$253.27

Record

82%

1685-358 (2043)

tradecraftCTR

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$802

Value

$641.6

PnL

-$160.4

Record

51%

5979-5671 (11650)

thestingsnake

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$705.19

Value

$571.66

PnL

-$133.53

Record

60%

4037-2727 (6764)

RebornAthenaCTR

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$400

Value

$402.09

PnL

+$2.09

Record

53%

2003-1799 (3802)

38791873984189CTR

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$541.81

Value

$366.38

PnL

+$5.41

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

BillBenter2026<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$82.34

Value

$74.25

PnL

-$8.09

Record

58%

18584-13649 (32233)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$53.14

Value

$64.13

PnL

+$10.99

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

TRCM<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$30.7

Value

$34

PnL

+$3.3

Record

55%

3938-3177 (7115)

Research grade

NeutralAidan Mayo at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Aidan Mayo

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Aidan Mayo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAidan Mayo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMees Rottgering 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedAidan Mayo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Aidan Mayo 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aidan Mayo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.