Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Valerio Aboian, while the market favors Franco Roncadelli (56%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Guayaquil: Franco Roncadelli vs Valerio Aboian

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Valerio Aboian (83%) · Valerio Aboian at 44¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 2

Franco Roncadelli56¢Valerio Aboian44¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Valerio Aboian

Consensus Traders

Valerio Aboian 83%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 43.5¢

-26% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralValerio Aboian at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Valerio Aboian

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Franco Roncadelli 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Franco Roncadelli56%

Valerio Aboian44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Franco Roncadelli2 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,178

Combined PnL+$532.55

Valerio Aboian10 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares10,582

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Franco Roncadelli — 17%Valerio Aboian — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Valerio Aboian. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleValerio Aboian 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpValerio Aboian 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrValerio Aboian 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedValerio Aboian 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Valerio Aboian 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Valerio Aboianavg 49.9¢	$4.8K	$4.5K	-$296.63	52% 13507-12361 (25868)
└ Valerio Aboian leg	Valerio Aboianavg 49.9¢	$2.9K	$2.6K	-$316.37
└ Franco Roncadelli leg	Franco Roncadelliavg 54.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$19.74
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Valerio Aboianavg 82.6¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$125.79	54% 16754-14059 (30813)
└ Franco Roncadelli leg	Franco Roncadelliavg 21.2¢	$365.28	$1.1K	+$771.53
└ Valerio Aboian leg	Valerio Aboianavg 82.6¢	$1.5K	$628.02	-$897.32
tradecraft	Franco Roncadelliavg 40¢	$800	$1.3K	+$520	52% 5834-5451 (11285)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Valerio Aboianavg 55.5¢	$1.7K	$1.0K	-$645	51% 1218-1152 (2370)
RN1CTR	Valerio Aboianavg 63¢	$1.6K	$883.63	-$753.69	54% 55386-47442 (102828)
TRCMCTR	Valerio Aboianavg 60¢	$1.2K	$680	-$520	55% 3901-3131 (7032)
GH ghostorderCTR	Valerio Aboianavg 50¢	$630.75	$493	-$137.75	62% 4241-2614 (6855)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Valerio Aboianavg 73¢	$803.32	$374.15	-$429.17	49% 18442-18863 (37305)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Valerio Aboianavg 54.4¢	$343.5	$165.32	-$21.81	53% 596-525 (1121)
└ Franco Roncadelli leg	Franco Roncadelliavg 41.2¢	$70.25	$84.42	+$17.98
└ Valerio Aboian leg	Valerio Aboianavg 54.4¢	$87.22	$80.9	-$39.79
poshposhCTR	Valerio Aboianavg 49.8¢	$120.19	$131.64	+$11.45	60% 9138-6084 (15222)
VeryLucky888	Franco Roncadelliavg 59.1¢	$113.75	$117.15	+$12.55	58% 40458-29241 (69699)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Valerio Aboianavg 44.3¢	$53.25	$43.74	+$6.13	48% 3630-3886 (7516)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Valerio Aboianavg 48.3¢	$152.3	$40.79	+$43.06	60% 3925-2655 (6580)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Valerio Aboianavg 51¢	$18.7	$30.84	+$12.14	54% 2639-2268 (4907)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Valerio Aboianavg 59.3¢	$55.72	$0.75	+$8.76	56% 1793-1401 (3194)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$4,805.28

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$296.63

Record

52%

13507-12361 (25868)

Both legs:

Valerio Aboian$2,927.7949.9¢-$316.37

Franco Roncadelli$1,877.4854.9¢+$19.74

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$1,890.63

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$125.79

Record

54%

16754-14059 (30813)

Both legs:

Franco Roncadelli$365.2821.2¢+$771.53

Valerio Aboian$1,525.3482.6¢-$897.32

tradecraft

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$800

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$520

Record

52%

5834-5451 (11285)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$1,666

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$645

Record

51%

1218-1152 (2370)

RN1CTR

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$1,637.32

Value

$883.63

PnL

-$753.69

Record

54%

55386-47442 (102828)

TRCMCTR

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$1,200

Value

$680

PnL

-$520

Record

55%

3901-3131 (7032)

ghostorderCTR

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$630.75

Value

$493

PnL

-$137.75

Record

62%

4241-2614 (6855)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$803.32

Value

$374.15

PnL

-$429.17

Record

49%

18442-18863 (37305)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$343.5

Value

$165.32

PnL

-$21.81

Record

53%

596-525 (1121)

Both legs:

Franco Roncadelli$70.2541.2¢+$17.98

Valerio Aboian$87.2254.4¢-$39.79

poshposhCTR

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$120.19

Value

$131.64

PnL

+$11.45

Record

60%

9138-6084 (15222)

VeryLucky888

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$113.75

Value

$117.15

PnL

+$12.55

Record

58%

40458-29241 (69699)

efntrickCTR<$100

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$53.25

Value

$43.74

PnL

+$6.13

Record

48%

3630-3886 (7516)

thestingsnakeCTR

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$152.3

Value

$40.79

PnL

+$43.06

Record

60%

3925-2655 (6580)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$18.7

Value

$30.84

PnL

+$12.14

Record

54%

2639-2268 (4907)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$55.72

Value

$0.75

PnL

+$8.76

Record

56%

1793-1401 (3194)

Research grade

NeutralValerio Aboian at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Valerio Aboian

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Franco Roncadelli 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Valerio Aboian. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleValerio Aboian 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpValerio Aboian 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrValerio Aboian 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedValerio Aboian 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Valerio Aboian 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Valerio Aboian wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.