Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jurij Rodionov, while the market favors Nikoloz Basilashvili (59%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Erste Bank Open: Jurij Rodionov vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jurij Rodionov (40%) · Jurij Rodionov at 42¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3

Jurij Rodionov42¢Nikoloz Basilashvili58¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jurij Rodionov

Consensus Traders

Jurij Rodionov 40%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$141.78

Smart Money Entry

41.5¢ → 41.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralJurij Rodionov at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jurij Rodionov

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Nikoloz Basilashvili 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jurij Rodionov42%

Nikoloz Basilashvili59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jurij Rodionov2 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,994

Combined PnL+$80.7

Nikoloz Basilashvili3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,911

Combined PnL+$61.07

Jurij Rodionov — 40%Nikoloz Basilashvili — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Jurij Rodionov. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Jurij Rodionov) and the top 1000 (4 on Nikoloz Basilashvili) disagree here.

sharpNikoloz Basilashvili 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJurij Rodionov 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedJurij Rodionov 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Nikoloz Basilashvili 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Jurij Rodionovavg 41.5¢	$5.9K	$2.7K	+$80.84	58% 40752-29469 (70221)
K5 k56	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 57.6¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$53.57	58% 883-652 (1535)
0X 0x3cc65a9097a1c1e134366d6fb96a1e8eed4f53f7<$100	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 50¢	$43.1	$50.43	+$7.33	68% 89-41 (130)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Jurij Rodionovavg 44¢	$11.88	$11.07	-$0.14	58% 28121-20725 (48846)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.93	+$0.18	47% 2041-2345 (4386)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jurij Rodionov

Invested

$5,927.35

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$80.84

Record

58%

40752-29469 (70221)

k56

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$2,200

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$53.57

Record

58%

883-652 (1535)

0x3cc65a9097a1c1e134366d6fb96a1e8eed4f53f7<$100

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$43.1

Value

$50.43

PnL

+$7.33

Record

68%

89-41 (130)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Jurij Rodionov

Invested

$11.88

Value

$11.07

PnL

-$0.14

Record

58%

28121-20725 (48846)

ameisgoat11<$100

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.93

PnL

+$0.18

Record

47%

2041-2345 (4386)

Research grade

NeutralJurij Rodionov at 42%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jurij Rodionov

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Nikoloz Basilashvili 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Jurij Rodionov. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Jurij Rodionov) and the top 1000 (4 on Nikoloz Basilashvili) disagree here.

sharpNikoloz Basilashvili 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJurij Rodionov 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedJurij Rodionov 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Nikoloz Basilashvili 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jurij Rodionov wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.