Helsinki: Alexander Ritschard vs Leevi Saatela

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Alexander Ritschard (43%) · Alexander Ritschard at 97¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 22

Alexander Ritschard97¢Leevi Saatela3¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alexander Ritschard

Consensus Traders

Alexander Ritschard 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.3K

Combined PnL

$83.45

Smart Money Entry

96.3¢ → 97¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlexander Ritschard at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alexander Ritschard

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alexander Ritschard97%

Leevi Saatela3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alexander Ritschard6 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares11,581

Combined PnL+$63.3

Leevi Saatela8 traders

Total Value$710.45

Total Shares3,930

Combined PnL+$20.16

Alexander Ritschard — 43%Leevi Saatela — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Alexander Ritschardavg 96.6¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$19.56	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
LI Limousin	Alexander Ritschardavg 96.9¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$15.94	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
MA MadridTime	Alexander Ritschardavg 96.2¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$7.6	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
LI LightParadox	Alexander Ritschardavg 95.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$16.59	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
EU Eulhunter	Alexander Ritschardavg 94.4¢	$609.76	$628.88	+$19.12	53% 217-191 (408)
NO NotJumpCTR	Leevi Saatelaavg 50¢	$1.1K	$572.38	+$0.24	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Leevi Saatelaavg 3.9¢	$391.59	$186.08	+$11.98	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
└ Alexander Ritschard leg	Alexander Ritschardavg 97.5¢	$103.55	$103.39	-$0.16
└ Leevi Saatela leg	Leevi Saatelaavg 3.9¢	$120.94	$82.69	+$12.13
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Leevi Saatelaavg 2.7¢	$38.83	$60.89	+$22.06	48% 630-669 (1299)
SU suntori<$100	Alexander Ritschardavg 98¢	$47.61	$47.29	-$0.32	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Leevi Saatelaavg 6.8¢	$36.11	$38.49	+$2.37	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Leevi Saatelaavg 5.8¢	$23.4	$27.2	+$3.8	48% 372-408 (780)
RN1CTR<$100	Leevi Saatelaavg 4¢	$18.86	$10.28	-$8.58	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Leevi Saatelaavg 2.2¢	$0.67	$0.83	+$0.15	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Leevi Saatelaavg 1.5¢	$0.15	$0.27	+$0.12	50% 2841-2879 (5720)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Leevi Saatelaavg 2.4¢	$0.12	$0.11	-$0.01	41% 725-1037 (1762)

Venusian

Alexander Ritschard

Invested

$3,911.29

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$19.56

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

Limousin

Alexander Ritschard

Invested

$2,698.83

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$15.94

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

MadridTime

Alexander Ritschard

Invested

$2,584.98

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$7.6

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

LightParadox

Alexander Ritschard

Invested

$1,578.07

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$16.59

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

Eulhunter

Alexander Ritschard

Invested

$609.76

Value

$628.88

PnL

+$19.12

Record

53%

217-191 (408)

NotJumpCTR

Leevi Saatela

Invested

$1,050

Value

$572.38

PnL

+$0.24

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Leevi Saatela

Invested

$391.59

Value

$186.08

PnL

+$11.98

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

Both legs:

Alexander Ritschard$103.5597.5¢-$0.16

Leevi Saatela$120.943.9¢+$12.13

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Leevi Saatela

Invested

$38.83

Value

$60.89

PnL

+$22.06

Record

48%

630-669 (1299)

suntori<$100

Alexander Ritschard

Invested

$47.61

Value

$47.29

PnL

-$0.32

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Leevi Saatela

Invested

$36.11

Value

$38.49

PnL

+$2.37

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Leevi Saatela

Invested

$23.4

Value

$27.2

PnL

+$3.8

Record

48%

372-408 (780)

RN1CTR<$100

Leevi Saatela

Invested

$18.86

Value

$10.28

PnL

-$8.58

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Leevi Saatela

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.83

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Leevi Saatela

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.27

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

2841-2879 (5720)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Leevi Saatela

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.01

Record

41%

725-1037 (1762)

Research grade

NeutralAlexander Ritschard at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Alexander Ritschard

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alexander Ritschard wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.