Villa Maria: Franco Ribero vs Mateo Carballo
9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Franco Ribero (82%) · Franco Ribero at 99¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Franco Ribero
11
Franco Ribero 82%
$5.9K
$204.96
89.3¢ → 98.7¢
+11% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralFranco Ribero at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Franco Riberoavg 88.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.3K | +$285.38 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Franco Riberoavg 88.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$3.69 | 52% 13930-12706 (26636) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Franco Riberoavg 95¢ | $610.2 | $597.64 | -$12.56 | 50% 19451-19817 (39268) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554 | Franco Riberoavg 91.2¢ | $553.72 | $488.95 | -$64.77 | 53% 3213-2834 (6047) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Franco Riberoavg 80¢ | $231.2 | $231.34 | +$0.14 | 48% 1065-1167 (2232) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Mateo Carballoavg 18.2¢ | $52.88 | $55.49 | +$2.61 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
TH thestingsnake | Franco Riberoavg 79.7¢ | $101.71 | $54.41 | +$5.55 | 60% 4106-2766 (6872) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Franco Riberoavg 96¢ | $43.63 | $32.74 | -$10.88 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Franco Riberoavg 93¢ | $21.1 | $10.02 | +$1.1 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Franco Riberoavg 93¢ | $9.3 | $9.3 | +$0 | 52% 7504-6793 (14297) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Mateo Carballoavg 5¢ | $5.18 | $7.25 | +$2.07 | 72% 6831-2625 (9456) |
Invested
$3,006.64
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$285.38
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$1,088.5
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$3.69
Record
52%
13930-12706 (26636)
Invested
$610.2
Value
$597.64
PnL
-$12.56
Record
50%
19451-19817 (39268)
Invested
$553.72
Value
$488.95
PnL
-$64.77
Record
53%
3213-2834 (6047)
Invested
$231.2
Value
$231.34
PnL
+$0.14
Record
48%
1065-1167 (2232)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$52.88
Value
$55.49
PnL
+$2.61
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Invested
$101.71
Value
$54.41
PnL
+$5.55
Record
60%
4106-2766 (6872)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$43.63
Value
$32.74
PnL
-$10.88
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$21.1
Value
$10.02
PnL
+$1.1
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
Invested
$9.3
Value
$9.3
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
7504-6793 (14297)
Invested
$5.18
Value
$7.25
PnL
+$2.07
Record
72%
6831-2625 (9456)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
Franco Ribero — $3.3K
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Franco Ribero — $1.1K
omnibus-076daa
Franco Ribero — $597.64
0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554
Franco Ribero — $488.95
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Franco Ribero — $231.34
RN1
CTRMateo Carballo — $55.49
thestingsnake
Franco Ribero — $54.41
HRTrading
Franco Ribero — $32.74
VeryLucky888
Franco Ribero — $10.02
ameisgoat11
Franco Ribero — $9.3