Sioux Falls: Max Hans Rehberg vs Sebastian Dominko

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Sebastian Dominko (67%) · Sebastian Dominko at 71¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 6

Max Hans Rehberg30¢Sebastian Dominko70¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sebastian Dominko

Consensus Traders

Sebastian Dominko 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.3K

Combined PnL

-$533.28

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 70.5¢

+10% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Dominko at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Dominko

12 of 18 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Max Hans Rehberg30%

Sebastian Dominko71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sebastian Dominko12 traders

Total Value$20.2K

Total Shares29,266

Combined PnL+$186.53

Max Hans Rehberg6 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares6,954

Combined PnL-$719.82

Sebastian Dominko — 67%Max Hans Rehberg — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Sebastian Dominko. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSebastian Dominko 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMax Hans Rehberg 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedMax Hans Rehberg 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Max Hans Rehberg 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Sebastian Dominkoavg 71.8¢	$7.2K	$7.3K	+$173.07	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
UP UpTheBlues	Sebastian Dominkoavg 69.5¢	$6.3K	$6.0K	-$266.3	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Sebastian Dominkoavg 48.7¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	-$169.65	38% 495-804 (1299)
MR MrDoucheCTR	Max Hans Rehbergavg 43.7¢	$2.0K	$1.3K	-$711.25	82% 1687-359 (2046)
38 38791873984189	Sebastian Dominkoavg 55.8¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$10.62	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
TH thestingsnake	Sebastian Dominkoavg 62¢	$797.92	$888.62	+$104.8	60% 4049-2731 (6780)
VeryLucky888CTR	Max Hans Rehbergavg 55.7¢	$910.69	$883.29	-$27.4	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Sebastian Dominkoavg 59¢	$633.52	$773.96	+$140.44	52% 13740-12542 (26282)
OM omnibus-076daa	Sebastian Dominkoavg 74¢	$551.4	$555.13	+$3.73	49% 19048-19445 (38493)
SC SchruteBucks	Sebastian Dominkoavg 43.6¢	$284.55	$466.57	+$182.02	56% 1841-1436 (3277)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 71.9¢	$356.01	$337.87	-$18.14	53% 655-578 (1233)
└ Sebastian Dominko leg	Sebastian Dominkoavg 71.9¢	$253.26	$251.86	-$1.4
└ Max Hans Rehberg leg	Max Hans Rehbergavg 34¢	$102.75	$86	-$16.75
poshposhCTR	Max Hans Rehbergavg 50.7¢	$304.5	$324	+$19.5	59% 10007-6969 (16976)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 69¢	$195.63	$152.74	-$42.89	58% 18599-13660 (32259)
└ Sebastian Dominko leg	Sebastian Dominkoavg 69¢	$102.86	$106.54	+$3.68
└ Max Hans Rehberg leg	Max Hans Rehbergavg 57.2¢	$92.77	$46.21	-$46.56
HRTrading	Sebastian Dominkoavg 56.1¢	$99.52	$124.04	+$24.52	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 44.7¢	$72.61	$74.8	+$2.18	62% 13691-8547 (22238)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 65.3¢	$19.6	$21.75	+$2.15	51% 1415-1356 (2771)
TRCMCTR<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 58¢	$5.79	$5.39	-$0.4	55% 3944-3179 (7123)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 50¢	$5	$4.85	-$0.15	85% 5136-873 (6009)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 56¢	$5	$2.68	-$0.13	47% 2290-2563 (4853)
FL flatbarrel<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.3	+$0.2	58% 2748-1971 (4719)

RN1

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$7,165.9

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$173.07

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

UpTheBlues

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$6,294.67

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$266.3

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$3,089

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$169.65

Record

38%

495-804 (1299)

MrDoucheCTR

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$2,048.7

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$711.25

Record

82%

1687-359 (2046)

38791873984189

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$1,402.13

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10.62

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

thestingsnake

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$797.92

Value

$888.62

PnL

+$104.8

Record

60%

4049-2731 (6780)

VeryLucky888CTR

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$910.69

Value

$883.29

PnL

-$27.4

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$633.52

Value

$773.96

PnL

+$140.44

Record

52%

13740-12542 (26282)

omnibus-076daa

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$551.4

Value

$555.13

PnL

+$3.73

Record

49%

19048-19445 (38493)

SchruteBucks

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$284.55

Value

$466.57

PnL

+$182.02

Record

56%

1841-1436 (3277)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$356.01

Value

$337.87

PnL

-$18.14

Record

53%

655-578 (1233)

Both legs:

Sebastian Dominko$253.2671.9¢-$1.4

Max Hans Rehberg$102.7534¢-$16.75

poshposhCTR

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$304.5

Value

$324

PnL

+$19.5

Record

59%

10007-6969 (16976)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$195.63

Value

$152.74

PnL

-$42.89

Record

58%

18599-13660 (32259)

Both legs:

Sebastian Dominko$102.8669¢+$3.68

Max Hans Rehberg$92.7757.2¢-$46.56

HRTrading

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$99.52

Value

$124.04

PnL

+$24.52

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

Lilybaeum<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$72.61

Value

$74.8

PnL

+$2.18

Record

62%

13691-8547 (22238)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$19.6

Value

$21.75

PnL

+$2.15

Record

51%

1415-1356 (2771)

TRCMCTR<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$5.79

Value

$5.39

PnL

-$0.4

Record

55%

3944-3179 (7123)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$0.15

Record

85%

5136-873 (6009)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

Value

$2.68

PnL

-$0.13

Record

47%

2290-2563 (4853)

flatbarrel<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

2748-1971 (4719)

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Dominko at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Dominko

12 of 18 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Sebastian Dominko. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSebastian Dominko 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMax Hans Rehberg 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedMax Hans Rehberg 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Max Hans Rehberg 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sebastian Dominko wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.