Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Lucio Ratti, while the market favors Maximo Zeitune (61%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Villa Maria: Lucio Ratti vs Maximo Zeitune

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Lucio Ratti (50%) · Lucio Ratti at 39¢ · $192 held · ends Nov 9

Lucio Ratti39¢Maximo Zeitune61¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lucio Ratti

Consensus Traders

Lucio Ratti 50%

Total Value

$191.82

Combined PnL

-$1.56

Smart Money Entry

39.3¢ → 39¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralLucio Ratti at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lucio Ratti

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Maximo Zeitune 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lucio Ratti39%

Maximo Zeitune61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lucio Ratti2 traders

Total Value$142.93

Total Shares366

Combined PnL-$1.67

Maximo Zeitune2 traders

Total Value$48.89

Total Shares83

Combined PnL+$0.11

Lucio Ratti — 50%Maximo Zeitune — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100	Lucio Rattiavg 39¢	$99.45	$99.45	+$0	50% 495-491 (986)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Maximo Zeituneavg 59¢	$47.51	$47.51	+$0	54% 484-419 (903)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100	Lucio Rattiavg 40¢	$44.6	$43.48	-$1.67	51% 3961-3861 (7822)
0xheavy888<$100	Maximo Zeituneavg 56¢	$1.27	$1.39	+$0.11	56% 7456-5978 (13434)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100

Lucio Ratti

Invested

$99.45

Value

$99.45

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

495-491 (986)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Maximo Zeitune

Invested

$47.51

Value

$47.51

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

484-419 (903)

GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100

Lucio Ratti

Invested

$44.6

Value

$43.48

PnL

-$1.67

Record

51%

3961-3861 (7822)

0xheavy888<$100

Maximo Zeitune

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.39

PnL

+$0.11

Record

56%

7456-5978 (13434)

Research grade

NeutralLucio Ratti at 39%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Lucio Ratti

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Maximo Zeitune 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lucio Ratti wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.2%

39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$142.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

242.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.