Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yannik Kelm, while the market favors Oleg Prihodko (55%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Bratislava 2: Oleg Prihodko vs Yannik Kelm
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yannik Kelm (80%) · Yannik Kelm at 46¢ · $281 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yannik Kelm
5
Yannik Kelm 80%
$281.37
-$13.65
46.9¢ → 45.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYannik Kelm at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Oleg Prihodko 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yannik Kelm. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100 | Yannik Kelmavg 46¢ | $96.6 | $96.6 | -$1.05 | 58% 4066-2890 (6956) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yannik Kelmavg 47¢ | $89.77 | $87.86 | -$1.91 | 57% 29212-21600 (50812) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yannik Kelmavg 47.5¢ | $334.9 | $47.4 | -$11.12 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yannik Kelmavg 48¢ | $46.45 | $44.51 | +$0.48 | 48% 8915-9527 (18442) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Oleg Prihodkoavg 54¢ | $5.05 | $5 | -$0.05 | 52% 7485-6781 (14266) |
Invested
$96.6
Value
$96.6
PnL
-$1.05
Record
58%
4066-2890 (6956)
Invested
$89.77
Value
$87.86
PnL
-$1.91
Record
57%
29212-21600 (50812)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$334.9
Value
$47.4
PnL
-$11.12
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
Invested
$46.45
Value
$44.51
PnL
+$0.48
Record
48%
8915-9527 (18442)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.05
Record
52%
7485-6781 (14266)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.