Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Zsombor Piros, while the market favors Luca Nardi (53%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Orleans: Zsombor Piros vs Luca Nardi
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Zsombor Piros (40%) · Zsombor Piros at 48¢ · $213 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Zsombor Piros
5
Zsombor Piros 40%
$213.46
-$1.37
50.2¢ → 47.5¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralZsombor Piros at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Luca Nardi 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Zsombor Piros. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Zsombor Pirosavg 50.2¢ | $270.93 | $197.54 | -$1.2 | 48% 207-227 (434) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Zsombor Pirosavg 50¢ | $7.5 | $7.13 | -$0.38 | 22% 134-483 (617) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Luca Nardiavg 49.4¢ | $4.01 | $4.14 | +$0.13 | 24% 201-627 (828) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Luca Nardiavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.55 | +$0.05 | 24% 200-638 (838) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Luca Nardiavg 51¢ | $2.08 | $2.1 | +$0.02 | 48% 405-439 (844) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$270.93
Value
$197.54
PnL
-$1.2
Record
48%
207-227 (434)
Invested
$7.5
Value
$7.13
PnL
-$0.38
Record
22%
134-483 (617)
Invested
$4.01
Value
$4.14
PnL
+$0.13
Record
24%
201-627 (828)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0.05
Record
24%
200-638 (838)
Invested
$2.08
Value
$2.1
PnL
+$0.02
Record
48%
405-439 (844)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.