Monastir: Mika Petkovic vs Gianluca Cadenasso
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Gianluca Cadenasso (67%) · Gianluca Cadenasso at 61¢ · $65 held · ends Nov 16
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Neutral
Gianluca Cadenasso
6
Gianluca Cadenasso 67%
$64.93
$0.64
Research grade
NeutralGianluca Cadenasso at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Mika Petkovicavg 38.9¢ | $25.49 | $28.2 | +$2.71 | 24% 200-618 (818) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Gianluca Cadenassoavg 61¢ | $19.52 | $18.24 | -$1.28 | 48% 405-439 (844) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Gianluca Cadenassoavg 62¢ | $9.95 | $9.15 | -$0.8 | 55% 94-78 (172) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Mika Petkovicavg 38¢ | $2.94 | $3.33 | +$0.39 | 24% 200-638 (838) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Gianluca Cadenassoavg 60¢ | $3.34 | $3.17 | -$0.17 | 48% 207-227 (434) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Gianluca Cadenassoavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $2.85 | -$0.2 | 22% 134-483 (617) |
Invested
$25.49
Value
$28.2
PnL
+$2.71
Record
24%
200-618 (818)
Invested
$19.52
Value
$18.24
PnL
-$1.28
Record
48%
405-439 (844)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$9.95
Value
$9.15
PnL
-$0.8
Record
55%
94-78 (172)
Invested
$2.94
Value
$3.33
PnL
+$0.39
Record
24%
200-638 (838)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$3.34
Value
$3.17
PnL
-$0.17
Record
48%
207-227 (434)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$2.85
PnL
-$0.2
Record
22%
134-483 (617)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.