Swiss Indoors Basel: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Arthur Fils

12 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Arthur Fils (60%) · Arthur Fils at 79¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 3

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard21¢Arthur Fils79¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Arthur Fils

Consensus Traders

Arthur Fils 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.8K

Combined PnL

$266.46

Smart Money Entry

77.4¢ → 79¢

+2% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

Research candidateArthur Fils at 79%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arthur Fils

12 of 20 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard21%

Arthur Fils79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arthur Fils12 traders

Total Value$16.1K

Total Shares20,490

Combined PnL+$10.05

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard8 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares12,504

Combined PnL+$256.41

Arthur Fils — 60%Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Arthur Fils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard) and the top 1000 (8 on Arthur Fils) disagree here.

whaleArthur Fils 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrArthur Fils 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Arthur Fils 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Arthur Filsavg 77¢	$7.6K	$7.7K	+$98.95	49% 18391-18816 (37207)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Arthur Filsavg 76.4¢	$6.5K	$6.6K	+$112.05	59% 44247-30614 (74861)
└ Arthur Fils leg	Arthur Filsavg 76.4¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$2.7
└ Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard leg	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 22.7¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$109.35
HO HomeRunHazard	Arthur Filsavg 77.3¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$39.57	54% 16738-14040 (30778)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Arthur Filsavg 79¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$5.22	52% 13478-12328 (25806)
└ Arthur Fils leg	Arthur Filsavg 79¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$56
└ Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard leg	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 22.9¢	$715.13	$765.91	+$50.78
RR rrooster	Arthur Filsavg 76¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$10	63% 1313-781 (2094)
VeryLucky888CTR	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 22.9¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	+$195.65	58% 40382-29168 (69550)
1L 1lovejump	Arthur Filsavg 78.2¢	$2.3K	$1.2K	+$30.72	53% 575-515 (1090)
IL Illiasca	Arthur Filsavg 79¢	$1.0K	$987.34	-$12.66	65% 244-133 (377)
PA Paul973973	Arthur Filsavg 81¢	$1,000	$962.96	-$37.04	89% 867-109 (976)
TH thestingsnake	Arthur Filsavg 77.6¢	$904.32	$796.21	-$46.42	60% 3897-2643 (6540)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 23.1¢	$600	$611	+$11	51% 1198-1131 (2329)
TRCMCTR	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 24¢	$504.43	$535.8	+$31.37	55% 3893-3124 (7017)
RN1CTR	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 21.1¢	$289.41	$302.03	+$12.62	54% 55318-47360 (102678)
0xheavy888	Arthur Filsavg 76¢	$226.48	$230.95	+$4.47	56% 6840-5478 (12318)
SA Saber-greed	Arthur Filsavg 78¢	$225	$225	+$0	59% 2506-1737 (4243)
HI hi774cCTR	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 22¢	$141.03	$141.03	-$0	52% 4642-4347 (8989)
BI BillBenter2026	Arthur Filsavg 79.5¢	$112.82	$108.63	-$4.19	58% 18298-13444 (31742)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 24¢	$21.6	$23.85	+$2.25	50% 3672-3647 (7319)
CL claudesports<$100	Arthur Filsavg 51¢	$12.05	$18.43	+$5.79	35% 342-638 (980)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 19.4¢	$11.14	$12.64	+$1.5	62% 13578-8407 (21985)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 21¢	$9.45	$11.48	+$2.03	48% 3613-3865 (7478)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	Arthur Filsavg 78¢	$8.95	$8.95	+$0	55% 1671-1364 (3035)

omnibus-076daa

Arthur Fils

Invested

$7,619.33

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$98.95

Record

49%

18391-18816 (37207)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Arthur Fils

Invested

$6,525.61

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$112.05

Record

59%

44247-30614 (74861)

Both legs:

Arthur Fils$3,34876.4¢+$2.7

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard$3,177.6122.7¢+$109.35

HomeRunHazard

Arthur Fils

Invested

$2,328.41

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$39.57

Record

54%

16738-14040 (30778)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Arthur Fils

Invested

$1,979.13

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$5.22

Record

52%

13478-12328 (25806)

Both legs:

Arthur Fils$1,26479¢-$56

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard$715.1322.9¢+$50.78

rrooster

Arthur Fils

Invested

$1,520

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$10

Record

63%

1313-781 (2094)

VeryLucky888CTR

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$1,947.76

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$195.65

Record

58%

40382-29168 (69550)

1lovejump

Arthur Fils

Invested

$2,282.23

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$30.72

Record

53%

575-515 (1090)

Illiasca

Arthur Fils

Invested

$1,000

Value

$987.34

PnL

-$12.66

Record

65%

244-133 (377)

Paul973973

Arthur Fils

Invested

$1,000

Value

$962.96

PnL

-$37.04

Record

89%

867-109 (976)

thestingsnake

Arthur Fils

Invested

$904.32

Value

$796.21

PnL

-$46.42

Record

60%

3897-2643 (6540)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$600

Value

$611

PnL

+$11

Record

51%

1198-1131 (2329)

TRCMCTR

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$504.43

Value

$535.8

PnL

+$31.37

Record

55%

3893-3124 (7017)

RN1CTR

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$289.41

Value

$302.03

PnL

+$12.62

Record

54%

55318-47360 (102678)

0xheavy888

Arthur Fils

Invested

$226.48

Value

$230.95

PnL

+$4.47

Record

56%

6840-5478 (12318)

Saber-greed

Arthur Fils

Invested

$225

Value

$225

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

2506-1737 (4243)

hi774cCTR

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$141.03

Value

$141.03

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

4642-4347 (8989)

BillBenter2026

Arthur Fils

Invested

$112.82

Value

$108.63

PnL

-$4.19

Record

58%

18298-13444 (31742)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$21.6

Value

$23.85

PnL

+$2.25

Record

50%

3672-3647 (7319)

claudesports<$100

Arthur Fils

Invested

$12.05

Value

$18.43

PnL

+$5.79

Record

35%

342-638 (980)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$11.14

Value

$12.64

PnL

+$1.5

Record

62%

13578-8407 (21985)

efntrickCTR<$100

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$9.45

Value

$11.48

PnL

+$2.03

Record

48%

3613-3865 (7478)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

Arthur Fils

Invested

$8.95

Value

$8.95

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

1671-1364 (3035)

Research grade

Research candidateArthur Fils at 79%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Arthur Fils

12 of 20 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Arthur Fils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard) and the top 1000 (8 on Arthur Fils) disagree here.

whaleArthur Fils 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrArthur Fils 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Arthur Fils 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arthur Fils wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.