Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Holger Rune
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Tommy Paul (67%) · Tommy Paul at 67¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 9
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Neutral
Tommy Paul
3
Tommy Paul 67%
$6.6K
-$85.99
66.5¢ → 67¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralTommy Paul at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
K5 k56 | Tommy Paulavg 66.6¢ | $6.0K | $5.9K | -$99.47 | 57% 890-659 (1549) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Holger Runeavg 34¢ | $510 | $495 | +$7.5 | 58% 43195-31436 (74631) |
BA banepir | Tommy Paulavg 65¢ | $194.29 | $200.26 | +$5.98 | 49% 454-470 (924) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.