Erste Bank Open: Tommy Paul vs Andrey Rublev

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Tommy Paul (50%) · Tommy Paul at 54¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Tommy Paul54¢Andrey Rublev46¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tommy Paul

Consensus Traders

Tommy Paul 50%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$39.5

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 53.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralTommy Paul at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tommy Paul

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tommy Paul54%

Andrey Rublev47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tommy Paul3 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,001

Combined PnL-$26.26

Andrey Rublev3 traders

Total Value$310.67

Total Shares668

Combined PnL-$13.23

Tommy Paul — 50%Andrey Rublev — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Tommy Paul. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTommy Paul 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Andrey Rublev 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192	Tommy Paulavg 55¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$40.91	64% 105-58 (163)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Tommy Paulavg 55¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$40.17	53% 298-263 (561)
VeryLucky888	Tommy Paulavg 53.7¢	$3.1K	$853.43	+$54.82	58% 40372-29160 (69532)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR	Andrey Rublevavg 50¢	$232.56	$216.28	-$16.28	44% 383-481 (864)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Andrey Rublevavg 45¢	$46.35	$47.9	+$1.55	58% 27868-20501 (48369)
AS astapzippoCTR<$100	Andrey Rublevavg 45¢	$45	$46.5	+$1.5	56% 2100-1638 (3738)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192

Tommy Paul

Invested

$1,499.97

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$40.91

Record

64%

105-58 (163)

oxe78sh4w98

Tommy Paul

Invested

$1,473.18

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$40.17

Record

53%

298-263 (561)

VeryLucky888

Tommy Paul

Invested

$3,120.98

Value

$853.43

PnL

+$54.82

Record

58%

40372-29160 (69532)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR

Andrey Rublev

Invested

$232.56

Value

$216.28

PnL

-$16.28

Record

44%

383-481 (864)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Andrey Rublev

Invested

$46.35

Value

$47.9

PnL

+$1.55

Record

58%

27868-20501 (48369)

astapzippoCTR<$100

Andrey Rublev

Invested

$45

Value

$46.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

56%

2100-1638 (3738)

Research grade

NeutralTommy Paul at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Tommy Paul

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Tommy Paul. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTommy Paul 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Andrey Rublev 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tommy Paul wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.