Erste Bank Open: Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Tommy Paul (71%) · Tommy Paul at 96¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 5

Tommy Paul96¢Luciano Darderi4¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tommy Paul

Consensus Traders

Tommy Paul 71%

Total Value

$16.1K

Combined PnL

$14.45

Smart Money Entry

87.5¢ → 96.2¢

+10% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralTommy Paul at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tommy Paul

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tommy Paul96%

Luciano Darderi4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tommy Paul12 traders

Total Value$15.7K

Total Shares17,457

Combined PnL+$75.71

Luciano Darderi5 traders

Total Value$483.39

Total Shares7,260

Combined PnL-$61.26

Tommy Paul — 71%Luciano Darderi — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Tommy Paulavg 94¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	-$26.62	93% 826-60 (886)
HO HomeRunHazard	Tommy Paulavg 92.2¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$96.09	54% 17003-14250 (31253)
SB sbimbg	Tommy Paulavg 77¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$21.56	70% 3140-1354 (4494)
UP UpTheBlues	Tommy Paulavg 86.4¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$50.55	59% 45093-31481 (76574)
PA Paul973973	Tommy Paulavg 78¢	$641.03	$496.79	-$3.2	89% 896-113 (1009)
LU LuzzzerCTR	Luciano Darderiavg 7¢	$500	$464.29	-$35.71	45% 107-129 (236)
tradecraft	Tommy Paulavg 79¢	$395	$392.5	-$2.5	51% 5922-5597 (11519)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Tommy Paulavg 94¢	$329	$327.25	-$1.75	51% 1352-1294 (2646)
1L 1lovejump	Tommy Paulavg 89.9¢	$366.42	$246.94	-$61.99	53% 652-568 (1220)
HRTrading<$100	Tommy Paulavg 93¢	$18.6	$18.5	-$0.1	52% 3686-3349 (7035)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Tommy Paulavg 78¢	$11.69	$11.69	+$0	47% 2162-2466 (4628)
PA pauleta23<$100	Tommy Paulavg 87¢	$10	$9.66	-$0.34	67% 23201-11599 (34800)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Luciano Darderiavg 22¢	$8.34	$8.53	+$0.19	62% 13673-8506 (22179)
VeryLucky888CTR	Luciano Darderiavg 22¢	$1.4K	$8.2	-$22.5	58% 41209-29876 (71085)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Luciano Darderiavg 5.8¢	$1.79	$1.99	+$0.2	52% 13643-12473 (26116)
FL flatbarrel<$100	Tommy Paulavg 85¢	$85.2	$1.57	+$4.02	58% 2737-1964 (4701)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Luciano Darderiavg 22¢	$4.49	$0.38	-$3.43	60% 3993-2686 (6679)

Momo63

Tommy Paul

Invested

$5,079.32

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$26.62

Record

93%

826-60 (886)

HomeRunHazard

Tommy Paul

Invested

$3,910.06

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$96.09

Record

54%

17003-14250 (31253)

sbimbg

Tommy Paul

Invested

$3,320.6

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$21.56

Record

70%

3140-1354 (4494)

UpTheBlues

Tommy Paul

Invested

$1,704.66

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$50.55

Record

59%

45093-31481 (76574)

Paul973973

Tommy Paul

Invested

$641.03

Value

$496.79

PnL

-$3.2

Record

89%

896-113 (1009)

LuzzzerCTR

Luciano Darderi

Invested

$500

Value

$464.29

PnL

-$35.71

Record

45%

107-129 (236)

tradecraft

Tommy Paul

Invested

$395

Value

$392.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

51%

5922-5597 (11519)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Tommy Paul

Invested

$329

Value

$327.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

51%

1352-1294 (2646)

1lovejump

Tommy Paul

Invested

$366.42

Value

$246.94

PnL

-$61.99

Record

53%

652-568 (1220)

HRTrading<$100

Tommy Paul

Invested

$18.6

Value

$18.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

3686-3349 (7035)

ameisgoat11<$100

Tommy Paul

Invested

$11.69

Value

$11.69

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2162-2466 (4628)

pauleta23<$100

Tommy Paul

Invested

$10

Value

$9.66

PnL

-$0.34

Record

67%

23201-11599 (34800)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Luciano Darderi

Invested

$8.34

Value

$8.53

PnL

+$0.19

Record

62%

13673-8506 (22179)

VeryLucky888CTR

Luciano Darderi

Invested

$1,381.88

Value

$8.2

PnL

-$22.5

Record

58%

41209-29876 (71085)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Luciano Darderi

Invested

$1.79

Value

$1.99

PnL

+$0.2

Record

52%

13643-12473 (26116)

flatbarrel<$100

Tommy Paul

Invested

$85.2

Value

$1.57

PnL

+$4.02

Record

58%

2737-1964 (4701)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Luciano Darderi

Invested

$4.49

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$3.43

Record

60%

3993-2686 (6679)

Research grade

NeutralTommy Paul at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).

Smart Money Signal

Tommy Paul

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tommy Paul wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.