Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Carlos Alcaraz, while the market favors Tommy Paul (55%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Tommy Paul (+1.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Carlos Alcaraz (20%) · Carlos Alcaraz at 45¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Carlos Alcaraz
5
Carlos Alcaraz 20%
1 arb excluded
$4.0K
$9.53
Research grade
NeutralCarlos Alcaraz at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Tommy Paul 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR | Carlos Alcarazavg 52¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$35.82 | 73% 3579-1316 (4895) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554 | Tommy Paulavg 50.4¢ | $999.03 | $932.54 | -$66.49 | 53% 3165-2784 (5949) |
MI mishipolisARB<$100 | Tommy Paulavg 50.5¢ | $361.59 | $408.1 | +$46.52 | 50% 4506-4439 (8945) |
| └ Tommy Paul leg | Tommy Paulavg 50.5¢ | $248.68 | $270.85 | +$22.16 | |
| └ Carlos Alcaraz leg | Carlos Alcarazavg 37¢ | $112.91 | $137.26 | +$24.35 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Tommy Paulavg 47¢ | $353.21 | $402.06 | +$48.85 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Tommy Paulavg 48¢ | $346.47 | $339.25 | -$7.22 | 49% 18981-19394 (38375) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Tommy Paulavg 48¢ | $68.88 | $67.45 | -$1.43 | 50% 3801-3761 (7562) |
Invested
$1,862.68
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$35.82
Record
73%
3579-1316 (4895)
Invested
$999.03
Value
$932.54
PnL
-$66.49
Record
53%
3165-2784 (5949)
Invested
$361.59
Value
$408.1
PnL
+$46.52
Record
50%
4506-4439 (8945)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$353.21
Value
$402.06
PnL
+$48.85
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
Invested
$346.47
Value
$339.25
PnL
-$7.22
Record
49%
18981-19394 (38375)
Invested
$68.88
Value
$67.45
PnL
-$1.43
Record
50%
3801-3761 (7562)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.