Erste Bank Open: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Carlos Alcaraz (25%) · Carlos Alcaraz at 78¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 6

Tommy Paul23¢Carlos Alcaraz77¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Carlos Alcaraz

Consensus Traders

Carlos Alcaraz 25%

Total Value

$33.6K

Combined PnL

$49.24

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 77.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralCarlos Alcaraz at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Carlos Alcaraz

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tommy Paul23%

Carlos Alcaraz78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Carlos Alcaraz2 traders

Total Value$26.7K

Total Shares34,939

Combined PnL-$178.51

Tommy Paul6 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares29,087

Combined PnL+$227.75

Carlos Alcaraz — 25%Tommy Paul — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Carlos Alcaraz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCarlos Alcaraz 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpCarlos Alcaraz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTommy Paul 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedTommy Paul 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Tommy Paul 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Carlos Alcarazavg 77¢	$26.6K	$26.4K	-$172.79	50% 210-207 (417)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Tommy Paulavg 23¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$80.4	65% 1700-920 (2620)
VeryLucky888CTR	Tommy Paulavg 22.6¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$69.1	58% 41483-30101 (71584)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Tommy Paulavg 22¢	$660	$705	+$45	53% 5576-4935 (10511)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Tommy Paulavg 22¢	$469.36	$501.36	+$32	47% 2468-2770 (5238)
MA manoamano	Carlos Alcarazavg 78¢	$297.32	$291.6	-$5.72	51% 465-448 (913)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Tommy Paulavg 23¢	$46	$47	+$1	46% 7901-9318 (17219)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Tommy Paulavg 23¢	$11.5	$11.75	+$0.25	55% 5710-4749 (10459)

Kch-Temp

Carlos Alcaraz

Invested

$26,609.36

Value

$26.4K

PnL

-$172.79

Record

50%

210-207 (417)

darkumbreon88CTR

Tommy Paul

Invested

$3,698.33

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$80.4

Record

65%

1700-920 (2620)

VeryLucky888CTR

Tommy Paul

Invested

$1,745.99

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$69.1

Record

58%

41483-30101 (71584)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Tommy Paul

Invested

$660

Value

$705

PnL

+$45

Record

53%

5576-4935 (10511)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Tommy Paul

Invested

$469.36

Value

$501.36

PnL

+$32

Record

47%

2468-2770 (5238)

manoamano

Carlos Alcaraz

Invested

$297.32

Value

$291.6

PnL

-$5.72

Record

51%

465-448 (913)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Tommy Paul

Invested

$46

Value

$47

PnL

+$1

Record

46%

7901-9318 (17219)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Tommy Paul

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

55%

5710-4749 (10459)

Research grade

NeutralCarlos Alcaraz at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Carlos Alcaraz

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Carlos Alcaraz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCarlos Alcaraz 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpCarlos Alcaraz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTommy Paul 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedTommy Paul 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Tommy Paul 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Carlos Alcaraz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.