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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Daniel Merida Aguilar — but Tommy Paul won instead.
Game Spread: Tommy Paul (-3.5) vs Daniel Merida Aguilar (+3.5)
Resolved Tommy Paul. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Daniel Merida Aguilar. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Daniel Merida Aguilar 63%
Total Value
$28.48
Combined PnL
$0
Smart Money Signal
Daniel Merida Aguilar
5 of 8 top traders (63%)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Tommy Paul100%
Daniel Merida Aguilar0%
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x4fc7a56d...21a39f
Slug
atp-paul-aguilar-2026-11-04-game-handicap-home-3pt5