Brest: Tom Paris vs Borna Gojo

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Tom Paris (58%) · Tom Paris at 53¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3

Tom Paris53¢Borna Gojo47¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tom Paris

Consensus Traders

Tom Paris 58%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$708.73

Smart Money Entry

40.9¢ → 52.5¢

+28% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralTom Paris at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tom Paris

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tom Paris53%

Borna Gojo48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tom Paris7 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares8,954

Combined PnL+$920.56

Borna Gojo5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,153

Combined PnL-$211.84

Tom Paris — 58%Borna Gojo — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Tom Parisavg 37.8¢	$2.2K	$3.0K	+$845.63	59% 44240-30609 (74849)
HO HomeRunHazard	Tom Parisavg 52.6¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$73.69	54% 16731-14038 (30769)
EF efntrickCTR	Borna Gojoavg 64.5¢	$915.07	$677.79	-$237.28	48% 3606-3861 (7467)
0X 0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525CTR	Borna Gojoavg 44¢	$199.57	$247.19	+$47.62	50% 95-94 (189)
VeryLucky888	Tom Parisavg 23¢	$126.96	$109.53	-$2.23	58% 40372-29160 (69532)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Borna Gojoavg 76.1¢	$144.32	$85.53	+$8.4	60% 3888-2641 (6529)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Borna Gojoavg 70.2¢	$108.1	$73.95	-$34.15	52% 13467-12324 (25791)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Tom Parisavg 23¢	$24.61	$24.08	-$0.54	50% 3672-3643 (7315)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Borna Gojoavg 46¢	$19.21	$22.78	+$3.57	54% 2551-2184 (4735)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Tom Parisavg 23¢	$9.8	$9.58	-$0.21	62% 13574-8401 (21975)
tradecraft<$100	Tom Parisavg 44¢	$4.4	$4.55	+$0.15	52% 5809-5432 (11241)
FL flatbarrel	Tom Parisavg 28¢	$112	$4.26	+$4.07	58% 2721-1949 (4670)

UpTheBlues

Tom Paris

Invested

$2,181.45

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$845.63

Record

59%

44240-30609 (74849)

HomeRunHazard

Tom Paris

Invested

$1,328.91

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$73.69

Record

54%

16731-14038 (30769)

efntrickCTR

Borna Gojo

Invested

$915.07

Value

$677.79

PnL

-$237.28

Record

48%

3606-3861 (7467)

0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525CTR

Borna Gojo

Invested

$199.57

Value

$247.19

PnL

+$47.62

Record

50%

95-94 (189)

VeryLucky888

Tom Paris

Invested

$126.96

Value

$109.53

PnL

-$2.23

Record

58%

40372-29160 (69532)

thestingsnakeCTR

Borna Gojo

Invested

$144.32

Value

$85.53

PnL

+$8.4

Record

60%

3888-2641 (6529)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Borna Gojo

Invested

$108.1

Value

$73.95

PnL

-$34.15

Record

52%

13467-12324 (25791)

NatoAlfista<$100

Tom Paris

Invested

$24.61

Value

$24.08

PnL

-$0.54

Record

50%

3672-3643 (7315)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$19.21

Value

$22.78

PnL

+$3.57

Record

54%

2551-2184 (4735)

Lilybaeum<$100

Tom Paris

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.58

PnL

-$0.21

Record

62%

13574-8401 (21975)

tradecraft<$100

Tom Paris

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

5809-5432 (11241)

flatbarrel

Tom Paris

Invested

$112

Value

$4.26

PnL

+$4.07

Record

58%

2721-1949 (4670)

Research grade

NeutralTom Paris at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Tom Paris

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tom Paris wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.