Hersonissos 3: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Philip Henning
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Philip Henning (25%) · Philip Henning at 59¢ · $245 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Philip Henning
4
Philip Henning 25%
$244.56
-$0.84
Research grade
NeutralPhilip Henning at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Philip Henningavg 59.8¢ | $166.75 | $164.39 | +$3.21 | 57% 70-52 (122) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Radu Mihai Papoeavg 41.7¢ | $68.01 | $66.91 | -$4.37 | 34% 147-291 (438) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Radu Mihai Papoeavg 38¢ | $6.16 | $6.65 | +$0.16 | 23% 176-586 (762) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Radu Mihai Papoeavg 38¢ | $5.85 | $6.31 | +$0.15 | 23% 176-590 (766) |
0xheavy888Invested
$166.75
Value
$164.39
PnL
+$3.21
Record
57%
70-52 (122)
Invested
$68.01
Value
$66.91
PnL
-$4.37
Record
34%
147-291 (438)
Invested
$6.16
Value
$6.65
PnL
+$0.16
Record
23%
176-586 (762)
Invested
$5.85
Value
$6.31
PnL
+$0.15
Record
23%
176-590 (766)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.