Hersonissos 3: Oskari Paldanius vs Raul Brancaccio

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Raul Brancaccio (69%) · Raul Brancaccio at 78¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 17

Oskari Paldanius23¢Raul Brancaccio77¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Raul Brancaccio

Consensus Traders

Raul Brancaccio 69%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$423.47

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 77.5¢

+53% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralRaul Brancaccio at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raul Brancaccio

11 of 16 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oskari Paldanius23%

Raul Brancaccio78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raul Brancaccio11 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares7,700

Combined PnL+$492.61

Oskari Paldanius5 traders

Total Value$400.15

Total Shares1,523

Combined PnL-$69.14

Raul Brancaccio — 69%Oskari Paldanius — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Raul Brancaccioavg 46¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$234.22	58% 3746-2703 (6449)
TH thestingsnake	Raul Brancaccioavg 62.8¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	+$29.55	15% 60-331 (391)
MA MadridTime	Raul Brancaccioavg 53.6¢	$209.96	$307.78	+$97.82	25% 203-621 (824)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 45.1¢	$289.69	$303.24	+$13.55	34% 164-316 (480)
└ Raul Brancaccio leg	Raul Brancaccioavg 50¢	$143.84	$162.54	+$18.7
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 45.1¢	$145.85	$140.7	-$5.15
tradecraft	Raul Brancaccioavg 60.9¢	$193.35	$249.07	+$55.73	14% 93-564 (657)
TH thirdt1me	Raul Brancaccioavg 64¢	$326	$157	+$55	34% 57-112 (169)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Oskari Paldaniusavg 22.8¢	$164.42	$155.06	-$9.35	54% 1606-1351 (2957)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 30.8¢	$142.09	$132.79	-$9.3	24% 202-633 (835)
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 30.8¢	$111.59	$96.04	-$15.55
└ Raul Brancaccio leg	Raul Brancaccioavg 61¢	$30.5	$36.75	+$6.25
CI cigarettesCTR	Oskari Paldaniusavg 31.1¢	$109	$92.75	-$16.25	52% 5313-4817 (10130)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 49.9¢	$91.68	$90.97	-$0.71	61% 891-567 (1458)
BA babybells<$100	Raul Brancaccioavg 51¢	$74.45	$65.23	+$7.88	15% 65-357 (422)
machinelearned<$100	Raul Brancaccioavg 56.3¢	$61.56	$62	+$0.44	32% 278-586 (864)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Raul Brancaccioavg 77¢	$57.45	$51.42	-$6.03	56% 3777-2945 (6722)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Raul Brancaccioavg 53.5¢	$51.77	$51.36	-$0.41	52% 51-48 (99)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 38.5¢	$72.27	$44.15	-$28.13	24% 201-643 (844)
SC SchruteBucks	Raul Brancaccioavg 56.7¢	$103.89	$40.33	+$17.44	18% 107-478 (585)
TRCM<$100	Raul Brancaccioavg 54¢	$21.01	$21.98	+$0.97	6% 27-411 (438)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 39.9¢	$31.92	$17.22	-$14.7	24% 205-638 (843)

RN1

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$2,394.3

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$234.22

Record

58%

3746-2703 (6449)

thestingsnake

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$1,386.67

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$29.55

Record

15%

60-331 (391)

MadridTime

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$209.96

Value

$307.78

PnL

+$97.82

Record

25%

203-621 (824)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$289.69

Value

$303.24

PnL

+$13.55

Record

34%

164-316 (480)

Both legs:

Raul Brancaccio$143.8450¢+$18.7

Oskari Paldanius$145.8545.1¢-$5.15

tradecraft

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$193.35

Value

$249.07

PnL

+$55.73

Record

14%

93-564 (657)

thirdt1me

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$326

Value

$157

PnL

+$55

Record

34%

57-112 (169)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$164.42

Value

$155.06

PnL

-$9.35

Record

54%

1606-1351 (2957)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$142.09

Value

$132.79

PnL

-$9.3

Record

24%

202-633 (835)

Both legs:

Oskari Paldanius$111.5930.8¢-$15.55

Raul Brancaccio$30.561¢+$6.25

cigarettesCTR

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$109

Value

$92.75

PnL

-$16.25

Record

52%

5313-4817 (10130)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$91.68

Value

$90.97

PnL

-$0.71

Record

61%

891-567 (1458)

babybells<$100

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$74.45

Value

$65.23

PnL

+$7.88

Record

15%

65-357 (422)

machinelearned<$100

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$61.56

Value

$62

PnL

+$0.44

Record

32%

278-586 (864)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$57.45

Value

$51.42

PnL

-$6.03

Record

56%

3777-2945 (6722)

Eulhunter<$100

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$51.77

Value

$51.36

PnL

-$0.41

Record

52%

51-48 (99)

LimousinCTR<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$72.27

Value

$44.15

PnL

-$28.13

Record

24%

201-643 (844)

SchruteBucks

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$103.89

Value

$40.33

PnL

+$17.44

Record

18%

107-478 (585)

TRCM<$100

Raul Brancaccio

Invested

$21.01

Value

$21.98

PnL

+$0.97

Record

27-411 (438)

VenusianCTR<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$31.92

Value

$17.22

PnL

-$14.7

Record

24%

205-638 (843)

Research grade

NeutralRaul Brancaccio at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raul Brancaccio

11 of 16 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raul Brancaccio wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.