Sioux Falls: Daniil Ostapenkov vs Patrick Maloney
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Daniil Ostapenkov (20%) · Daniil Ostapenkov at 50¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Daniil Ostapenkov
5
Daniil Ostapenkov 20%
$14.8K
$158.16
Research grade
NeutralDaniil Ostapenkov at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Daniil Ostapenkov. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NI NinjaSquirtle | Daniil Ostapenkovavg 47.9¢ | $12.9K | $13.2K | +$290.13 | — 1-6 (7) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Patrick Maloneyavg 51¢ | $1.6K | $808 | -$8 | 52% 13523-12371 (25894) |
 0xheavy888 | Patrick Maloneyavg 61¢ | $1.0K | $512.07 | -$106.47 | 56% 6856-5494 (12350) |
 RN1 | Patrick Maloneyavg 50¢ | $235.46 | $235.46 | +$0 | 54% 55451-47514 (102965) |
 VeryLucky888 | Patrick Maloneyavg 60¢ | $105 | $87.5 | -$17.5 | 58% 40527-29300 (69827) |
Invested
$12,879.64
Value
$13.2K
PnL
+$290.13
Record
—
1-6 (7)
Invested
$1,600
Value
$808
PnL
-$8
Record
52%
13523-12371 (25894)
0xheavy888Invested
$1,013.99
Value
$512.07
PnL
-$106.47
Record
56%
6856-5494 (12350)
RN1Invested
$235.46
Value
$235.46
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
55451-47514 (102965)
VeryLucky888Invested
$105
Value
$87.5
PnL
-$17.5
Record
58%
40527-29300 (69827)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.