Erste Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Daniil Medvedev (60%) · Daniil Medvedev at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Daniil Medvedev
5
Daniil Medvedev 60%
$2.3K
-$11.41
82.1¢ → 82.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralDaniil Medvedev at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA Paul973973 | Daniil Medvedevavg 82.1¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$14.67 | 89% 896-113 (1009) |
PL pltrkr111 | Daniil Medvedevavg 82¢ | $156.64 | $155.68 | -$0.96 | 54% 719-608 (1327) |
LI LilybaeumCTR | Cameron Norrieavg 18¢ | $136.48 | $140.28 | +$3.79 | 62% 13673-8506 (22179) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Cameron Norrieavg 18¢ | $14.22 | $14.62 | +$0.4 | 59% 45090-31481 (76571) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Daniil Medvedevavg 81¢ | $4.05 | $4.07 | +$0.02 | 47% 2160-2464 (4624) |
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$14.67
Record
89%
896-113 (1009)
Invested
$156.64
Value
$155.68
PnL
-$0.96
Record
54%
719-608 (1327)
Invested
$136.48
Value
$140.28
PnL
+$3.79
Record
62%
13673-8506 (22179)
Invested
$14.22
Value
$14.62
PnL
+$0.4
Record
59%
45090-31481 (76571)
Invested
$4.05
Value
$4.07
PnL
+$0.02
Record
47%
2160-2464 (4624)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.