Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Francisco Cerundolo, while the market favors Cameron Norrie (77%). 8 of 25 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Erste Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Francisco Cerundolo

8 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Francisco Cerundolo (32%) · Francisco Cerundolo at 24¢ · $90K held · ends Nov 3

Cameron Norrie77¢Francisco Cerundolo23¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Francisco Cerundolo

Consensus Traders

Francisco Cerundolo 32%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$90.4K

Combined PnL

$4.5K

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 23.5¢

-65% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidFrancisco Cerundolo at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Francisco Cerundolo

8 of 25 top traders (32%)Underdog side (market favors Cameron Norrie 77%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cameron Norrie77%

Francisco Cerundolo24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Francisco Cerundolo8 traders

Total Value$31.1K

Total Shares53,861

Combined PnL$-5.0K

Cameron Norrie17 traders

Total Value$41.7K

Total Shares58,423

Combined PnL+$9.5K

Francisco Cerundolo — 32%Cameron Norrie — 68%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Francisco Cerundolo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Francisco Cerundolo) and the top 1000 (6 on Cameron Norrie) disagree here.

whaleFrancisco Cerundolo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpFrancisco Cerundolo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCameron Norrie 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedFrancisco Cerundolo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Cameron Norrie 50% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KK kkookkooCTR	Francisco Cerundoloavg 69.2¢	$22.8K	$20.8K	$-2.0K	51% 577-560 (1137)
UP UpTheBlues	Cameron Norrieavg 60.5¢	$14.7K	$16.9K	+$2.2K	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
HO HomeRunHazard	Cameron Norrieavg 34.2¢	$6.0K	$10.1K	+$4.2K	54% 16741-14048 (30789)
RN1ARB<$100	Francisco Cerundoloavg 52.3¢	$9.1K	$9.4K	+$225.57	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
└ Cameron Norrie leg	Cameron Norrieavg 33.6¢	$2.7K	$5.5K	+$2.8K
└ Francisco Cerundolo leg	Francisco Cerundoloavg 52.3¢	$6.4K	$3.8K	$-2.6K
RE redvinnyCTR	Francisco Cerundoloavg 65.6¢	$9.5K	$6.6K	$-2.9K	75% 1461-490 (1951)
OM omnibus-076daa	Cameron Norrieavg 34.7¢	$3.9K	$6.1K	+$2.2K	49% 18415-18835 (37250)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Francisco Cerundoloavg 60.6¢	$4.9K	$5.0K	+$52.55	52% 13489-12341 (25830)
└ Cameron Norrie leg	Cameron Norrieavg 38.2¢	$1.9K	$3.4K	+$1.5K
└ Francisco Cerundolo leg	Francisco Cerundoloavg 60.6¢	$3.0K	$1.6K	$-1.5K
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584	Cameron Norrieavg 56¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$28.88	53% 155-136 (291)
JU Justluck9CTR	Francisco Cerundoloavg 64¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$46	40% 86-128 (214)
TH thestingsnake	Cameron Norrieavg 37.1¢	$1.3K	$2.2K	+$1.1K	60% 3908-2649 (6557)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Francisco Cerundoloavg 64¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$55	51% 1209-1141 (2350)
└ Francisco Cerundolo leg	Francisco Cerundoloavg 64¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$23
└ Cameron Norrie leg	Cameron Norrieavg 32.9¢	$625	$703	+$78
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Cameron Norrieavg 46.4¢	$2.6K	$1.0K	+$108.74	53% 584-515 (1099)
└ Cameron Norrie leg	Cameron Norrieavg 46.4¢	$538.76	$824.78	+$286.53
└ Francisco Cerundolo leg	Francisco Cerundoloavg 55.2¢	$393.67	$206.83	-$177.79
VeryLucky888	Cameron Norrieavg 33.2¢	$1.1K	$922.75	+$107.21	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Cameron Norrieavg 50¢	$490.2	$617.65	+$127.45	53% 300-265 (565)
MI MilesY	Cameron Norrieavg 76¢	$2.2K	$527.65	$-1.1K	57% 603-453 (1056)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192	Cameron Norrieavg 50¢	$500	$435	-$65	65% 107-58 (165)
RE RebornAthenaCTR	Francisco Cerundoloavg 51¢	$274.46	$304.06	+$29.6	53% 1995-1794 (3789)
PA pauleta23CTR	Francisco Cerundoloavg 41.3¢	$259.1	$279.31	+$20.21	67% 23032-11433 (34465)
SE seeeeeebCTR	Francisco Cerundoloavg 41¢	$246	$267	+$21	49% 617-630 (1247)
GH ghostorder	Cameron Norrieavg 55¢	$244.83	$247.06	+$2.23	62% 4235-2611 (6846)
BI BillBenter2026	Cameron Norrieavg 52.4¢	$124.6	$141.61	+$17.01	58% 18304-13452 (31756)
SA Saber-greed<$100	Cameron Norrieavg 35¢	$86.7	$91.66	+$4.95	59% 2512-1739 (4251)
SC SchruteBucks	Cameron Norrieavg 59.7¢	$1.8K	$67.44	+$314.76	56% 1786-1395 (3181)
tradecraft<$100	Cameron Norrieavg 61.6¢	$51.14	$57.68	+$6.53	52% 5822-5445 (11267)
BA Bagwell306<$100	Cameron Norrieavg 34¢	$44.35	$48.26	+$3.91	59% 3989-2827 (6816)

kkookkooCTR

Francisco Cerundolo

Invested

$22,821.1

Value

$20.8K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

51%

577-560 (1137)

UpTheBlues

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$14,704.76

Value

$16.9K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

HomeRunHazard

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$5,950.17

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

54%

16741-14048 (30789)

RN1ARB<$100

Francisco Cerundolo

Invested

$9,128.17

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$225.57

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

Both legs:

Cameron Norrie$2,700.9333.6¢+$2.8K

Francisco Cerundolo$6,427.2452.3¢$-2.6K

redvinnyCTR

Francisco Cerundolo

Invested

$9,479.33

Value

$6.6K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

75%

1461-490 (1951)

omnibus-076daa

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$3,863.06

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

49%

18415-18835 (37250)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Francisco Cerundolo

Invested

$4,940.9

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$52.55

Record

52%

13489-12341 (25830)

Both legs:

Cameron Norrie$1,904.0238.2¢+$1.5K

Francisco Cerundolo$3,036.8960.6¢$-1.5K

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$3,235.12

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$28.88

Record

53%

155-136 (291)

Justluck9CTR

Francisco Cerundolo

Invested

$2,944

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$46

Record

40%

86-128 (214)

thestingsnake

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$1,257.16

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

60%

3908-2649 (6557)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Francisco Cerundolo

Invested

$2,097

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$55

Record

51%

1209-1141 (2350)

Both legs:

Francisco Cerundolo$1,47264¢-$23

Cameron Norrie$62532.9¢+$78

1lovejumpARB<$100

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$2,580.96

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$108.74

Record

53%

584-515 (1099)

Both legs:

Cameron Norrie$538.7646.4¢+$286.53

Francisco Cerundolo$393.6755.2¢-$177.79

VeryLucky888

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$1,077.43

Value

$922.75

PnL

+$107.21

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

oxe78sh4w98

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$490.2

Value

$617.65

PnL

+$127.45

Record

53%

300-265 (565)

MilesY

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$2,213.61

Value

$527.65

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

57%

603-453 (1056)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$500

Value

$435

PnL

-$65

Record

65%

107-58 (165)

RebornAthenaCTR

Francisco Cerundolo

Invested

$274.46

Value

$304.06

PnL

+$29.6

Record

53%

1995-1794 (3789)

pauleta23CTR

Francisco Cerundolo

Invested

$259.1

Value

$279.31

PnL

+$20.21

Record

67%

23032-11433 (34465)

seeeeeebCTR

Francisco Cerundolo

Invested

$246

Value

$267

PnL

+$21

Record

49%

617-630 (1247)

ghostorder

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$244.83

Value

$247.06

PnL

+$2.23

Record

62%

4235-2611 (6846)

BillBenter2026

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$124.6

Value

$141.61

PnL

+$17.01

Record

58%

18304-13452 (31756)

Saber-greed<$100

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$86.7

Value

$91.66

PnL

+$4.95

Record

59%

2512-1739 (4251)

SchruteBucks

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$1,842.9

Value

$67.44

PnL

+$314.76

Record

56%

1786-1395 (3181)

tradecraft<$100

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$51.14

Value

$57.68

PnL

+$6.53

Record

52%

5822-5445 (11267)

Bagwell306<$100

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$44.35

Value

$48.26

PnL

+$3.91

Record

59%

3989-2827 (6816)

Research grade

AvoidFrancisco Cerundolo at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Francisco Cerundolo

8 of 25 top traders (32%)Underdog side (market favors Cameron Norrie 77%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Francisco Cerundolo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Francisco Cerundolo) and the top 1000 (6 on Cameron Norrie) disagree here.

whaleFrancisco Cerundolo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpFrancisco Cerundolo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCameron Norrie 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedFrancisco Cerundolo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Cameron Norrie 50% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Francisco Cerundolo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.