Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Milos Karol, while the market favors Luca Nardi (75%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Metz: Luca Nardi vs Milos Karol

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Milos Karol (73%) · Milos Karol at 26¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Luca Nardi75¢Milos Karol25¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Milos Karol

Consensus Traders

Milos Karol 73%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$18.54

Smart Money Entry

23.9¢ → 25.5¢

+7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidMilos Karol at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Milos Karol

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Luca Nardi 75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Luca Nardi75%

Milos Karol26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Luca Nardi3 traders

Total Value$117.05

Total Shares161

Combined PnL+$0.54

Milos Karol8 traders

Total Value$166.17

Total Shares775

Combined PnL-$19.08

Luca Nardi — 27%Milos Karol — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Milos Karolavg 45.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$1	50% 1088-1092 (2180)
└ Luca Nardi leg	Luca Nardiavg 50¢	$525	$824.25	+$299.25
└ Milos Karol leg	Milos Karolavg 45.4¢	$567	$268.75	-$298.25
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Luca Nardiavg 74.8¢	$633.43	$659.29	+$25.86	50% 2819-2838 (5657)
└ Luca Nardi leg	Luca Nardiavg 74.8¢	$519.77	$524.5	+$4.72
└ Milos Karol leg	Milos Karolavg 20.7¢	$113.66	$134.8	+$21.14
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Luca Nardiavg 75¢	$389.92	$390.42	+$0.5	48% 367-395 (762)
└ Luca Nardi leg	Luca Nardiavg 75¢	$225	$226.5	+$1.5
└ Milos Karol leg	Milos Karolavg 24.6¢	$164.92	$163.92	-$1
0xheavy888<$100	Luca Nardiavg 74.5¢	$94.92	$95.58	+$0.67	56% 657-526 (1183)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Milos Karolavg 22.9¢	$65.98	$53.19	-$12.79	34% 259-513 (772)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Milos Karolavg 24¢	$42.86	$44.64	+$1.79	45% 90-110 (200)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Milos Karolavg 25¢	$41.57	$37.47	-$4.1	49% 616-642 (1258)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Milos Karolavg 24¢	$12.95	$13.49	+$0.54	50% 2155-2179 (4334)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Luca Nardiavg 58¢	$11.6	$11.6	+$0	83% 939-195 (1134)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Luca Nardiavg 76¢	$9.99	$9.86	-$0.13	48% 216-234 (450)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Milos Karolavg 28.4¢	$9.38	$7.09	-$2.29	45% 449-545 (994)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Milos Karolavg 18¢	$6.21	$6.38	+$0.17	48% 3920-4262 (8182)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Milos Karolavg 31¢	$6	$3.58	-$2.42	41% 702-1022 (1724)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Milos Karolavg 23¢	$0.3	$0.32	+$0.03	53% 1840-1607 (3447)

NotJumpARB<$100

Milos Karol

Invested

$1,092

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

1088-1092 (2180)

Both legs:

Luca Nardi$52550¢+$299.25

Milos Karol$56745.4¢-$298.25

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Luca Nardi

Invested

$633.43

Value

$659.29

PnL

+$25.86

Record

50%

2819-2838 (5657)

Both legs:

Luca Nardi$519.7774.8¢+$4.72

Milos Karol$113.6620.7¢+$21.14

thirdt1meARB<$100

Luca Nardi

Invested

$389.92

Value

$390.42

PnL

+$0.5

Record

48%

367-395 (762)

Both legs:

Luca Nardi$22575¢+$1.5

Milos Karol$164.9224.6¢-$1

0xheavy888<$100

Luca Nardi

Invested

$94.92

Value

$95.58

PnL

+$0.67

Record

56%

657-526 (1183)

babybellsCTR<$100

Milos Karol

Invested

$65.98

Value

$53.19

PnL

-$12.79

Record

34%

259-513 (772)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Milos Karol

Invested

$42.86

Value

$44.64

PnL

+$1.79

Record

45%

90-110 (200)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Milos Karol

Invested

$41.57

Value

$37.47

PnL

-$4.1

Record

49%

616-642 (1258)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Milos Karol

Invested

$12.95

Value

$13.49

PnL

+$0.54

Record

50%

2155-2179 (4334)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Luca Nardi

Invested

$11.6

Value

$11.6

PnL

+$0

Record

83%

939-195 (1134)

glennyorkshire<$100

Luca Nardi

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.86

PnL

-$0.13

Record

48%

216-234 (450)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Milos Karol

Invested

$9.38

Value

$7.09

PnL

-$2.29

Record

45%

449-545 (994)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Milos Karol

Invested

$6.21

Value

$6.38

PnL

+$0.17

Record

48%

3920-4262 (8182)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Milos Karol

Invested

Value

$3.58

PnL

-$2.42

Record

41%

702-1022 (1724)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Milos Karol

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.32

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

1840-1607 (3447)

Research grade

AvoidMilos Karol at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Milos Karol

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Luca Nardi 75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Milos Karol wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.