Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Toby Samuel, while the market favors Lorenzo Musetti (78%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Toby Samuel
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Toby Samuel (80%) · Toby Samuel at 22¢ · $183 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
Toby Samuel
5
Toby Samuel 80%
$183.41
$19.01
20.4¢ → 22¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidToby Samuel at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Lorenzo Musetti 78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Toby Samuel. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Toby Samuelavg 23¢ | $91.02 | $91.02 | -$0 | 24% 200-631 (831) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Toby Samuelavg 17¢ | $46.91 | $63.47 | +$16.56 | 44% 78-98 (176) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Lorenzo Musettiavg 77¢ | $12.69 | $12.85 | +$0.16 | 61% 891-567 (1458) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Toby Samuelavg 18¢ | $9 | $11.5 | +$2.5 | 48% 391-428 (819) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Toby Samuelavg 23¢ | $4.77 | $4.56 | -$0.21 | 23% 195-637 (832) |
Invested
$91.02
Value
$91.02
PnL
-$0
Record
24%
200-631 (831)
Invested
$46.91
Value
$63.47
PnL
+$16.56
Record
44%
78-98 (176)
Invested
$12.69
Value
$12.85
PnL
+$0.16
Record
61%
891-567 (1458)
Invested
$9
Value
$11.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
48%
391-428 (819)
Invested
$4.77
Value
$4.56
PnL
-$0.21
Record
23%
195-637 (832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.