Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz

7 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Hubert Hurkacz (33%) · Hubert Hurkacz at 51¢ · $46K held · ends Nov 9

Lorenzo Musetti50¢Hubert Hurkacz50¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hubert Hurkacz

Consensus Traders

Hubert Hurkacz 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$46.0K

Combined PnL

-$109.05

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 50.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralHubert Hurkacz at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hubert Hurkacz

7 of 21 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lorenzo Musetti50%

Hubert Hurkacz51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hubert Hurkacz7 traders

Total Value$23.9K

Total Shares47,566

Combined PnL-$180.21

Lorenzo Musetti14 traders

Total Value$14.9K

Total Shares29,706

Combined PnL+$71.16

Hubert Hurkacz — 33%Lorenzo Musetti — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Hubert Hurkacz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLorenzo Musetti 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpHubert Hurkacz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLorenzo Musetti 67% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedLorenzo Musetti 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Lorenzo Musetti 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Hubert Hurkaczavg 50¢	$12.5K	$12.6K	+$125	50% 225-221 (446)
0X 0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 50¢	$7.6K	$7.6K	+$0.6	37% 462-787 (1249)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Hubert Hurkaczavg 51¢	$6.4K	$6.3K	-$188.21	46% 390-450 (840)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49.7¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$4.08	61% 13840-8746 (22586)
└ Lorenzo Musetti leg	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49.7¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$6.59
└ Hubert Hurkacz leg	Hubert Hurkaczavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.67
SE sentrioARB<$100	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49.2¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$6.85	50% 24998-24713 (49711)
└ Lorenzo Musetti leg	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$23.91
└ Hubert Hurkacz leg	Hubert Hurkaczavg 51¢	$870.25	$853.18	-$17.06
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$44.69	72% 6934-2737 (9671)
└ Lorenzo Musetti leg	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$29.05
└ Hubert Hurkacz leg	Hubert Hurkaczavg 49¢	$766.26	$781.9	+$15.64
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Hubert Hurkaczavg 51¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$42	59% 495-342 (837)
PL pltrkr111	Hubert Hurkaczavg 51¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$78.43	54% 745-625 (1370)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$15	53% 5746-5083 (10829)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$13.7	58% 48497-34661 (83158)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0	49% 3953-4141 (8094)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0	51% 3961-3861 (7822)
nigiri99CTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49¢	$744.8	$767.6	+$22.8	46% 7287-8594 (15881)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49¢	$588	$606	+$18	45% 404-499 (903)
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494	Hubert Hurkaczavg 50¢	$387.24	$391.11	+$3.87	54% 1272-1083 (2355)
38 38791873984189	Hubert Hurkaczavg 49.7¢	$317.77	$321.59	+$3.82	47% 12954-14535 (27489)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 48¢	$315.82	$319.11	+$3.29	50% 2583-2579 (5162)
MA manoamano	Hubert Hurkaczavg 51.4¢	$244.25	$239.99	-$4.26	51% 525-504 (1029)
VeryLucky888CTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49.4¢	$1.9K	$201.52	+$19.68	58% 43586-31701 (75287)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 50¢	$141.55	$141.74	+$0.19	46% 9226-10934 (20160)
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 50¢	$140	$141.4	+$1.4	48% 552-601 (1153)
IW iWasEnoughCTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49.9¢	$220.41	$111.31	+$1.26	53% 8068-7281 (15349)
0xheavy888CTR	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49.5¢	$196	$96.46	+$1.89	55% 7454-5978 (13432)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Lorenzo Musettiavg 49¢	$24.5	$25.25	+$0.75	54% 5901-4950 (10851)

Kch-Temp

Hubert Hurkacz

Invested

$12,500

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$125

Record

50%

225-221 (446)

0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$7,596.4

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$0.6

Record

37%

462-787 (1249)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Hubert Hurkacz

Invested

$6,447.12

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$188.21

Record

46%

390-450 (840)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$2,775.5

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$4.08

Record

61%

13840-8746 (22586)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Musetti$1,708.9549.7¢-$6.59

Hubert Hurkacz$1,066.5550¢+$10.67

sentrioARB<$100

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$2,260.47

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$6.85

Record

50%

24998-24713 (49711)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Musetti$1,390.2249.2¢+$23.91

Hubert Hurkacz$870.2551¢-$17.06

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$2,189.71

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$44.69

Record

72%

6934-2737 (9671)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Musetti$1,423.4549¢+$29.05

Hubert Hurkacz$766.2649¢+$15.64

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Hubert Hurkacz

Invested

$2,142

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$42

Record

59%

495-342 (837)

pltrkr111

Hubert Hurkacz

Invested

$1,999.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$78.43

Record

54%

745-625 (1370)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$1,470

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

5746-5083 (10829)

UpTheBluesCTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$1,369.82

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$13.7

Record

58%

48497-34661 (83158)

NotradecopyCTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

3953-4141 (8094)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

3961-3861 (7822)

nigiri99CTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$744.8

Value

$767.6

PnL

+$22.8

Record

46%

7287-8594 (15881)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$588

Value

$606

PnL

+$18

Record

45%

404-499 (903)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494

Hubert Hurkacz

Invested

$387.24

Value

$391.11

PnL

+$3.87

Record

54%

1272-1083 (2355)

38791873984189

Hubert Hurkacz

Invested

$317.77

Value

$321.59

PnL

+$3.82

Record

47%

12954-14535 (27489)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$315.82

Value

$319.11

PnL

+$3.29

Record

50%

2583-2579 (5162)

manoamano

Hubert Hurkacz

Invested

$244.25

Value

$239.99

PnL

-$4.26

Record

51%

525-504 (1029)

VeryLucky888CTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$1,878.34

Value

$201.52

PnL

+$19.68

Record

58%

43586-31701 (75287)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$141.55

Value

$141.74

PnL

+$0.19

Record

46%

9226-10934 (20160)

0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$140

Value

$141.4

PnL

+$1.4

Record

48%

552-601 (1153)

iWasEnoughCTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$220.41

Value

$111.31

PnL

+$1.26

Record

53%

8068-7281 (15349)

0xheavy888CTR

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$196

Value

$96.46

PnL

+$1.89

Record

55%

7454-5978 (13432)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$24.5

Value

$25.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

54%

5901-4950 (10851)

Research grade

NeutralHubert Hurkacz at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hubert Hurkacz

7 of 21 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Hubert Hurkacz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLorenzo Musetti 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpHubert Hurkacz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLorenzo Musetti 67% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedLorenzo Musetti 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Lorenzo Musetti 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hubert Hurkacz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.