Metz: Filippo Moroni vs Eliakim Coulibaly

3 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Filippo Moroni (10%) · Filippo Moroni at 54¢ · $412K held · ends Nov 22

Filippo Moroni54¢Eliakim Coulibaly46¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Filippo Moroni

Consensus Traders

Filippo Moroni 10%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$412.1K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 53.5¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralFilippo Moroni at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Filippo Moroni

3 of 30 top traders (10%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Filippo Moroni54%

Eliakim Coulibaly47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Filippo Moroni3 traders

Total Value$211.0K

Total Shares409,628

Combined PnL+$4.1K

Eliakim Coulibaly27 traders

Total Value$190.9K

Total Shares381,882

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Filippo Moroni — 10%Eliakim Coulibaly — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-87 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Filippo Moroni. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpEliakim Coulibaly 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperFilippo Moroni 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrEliakim Coulibaly 86% · 14

Diverging

Top 1000Eliakim Coulibaly 88% · 24

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Tan4321	Filippo Moroniavg 50.7¢	$252.5K	$210.4K	+$4.3K	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 49.6¢	$51.0K	$54.1K	+$3.0K	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 42.4¢	$31.1K	$34.1K	+$3.0K	46% 653-760 (1413)
alpheclabs2CTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 68.4¢	$46.1K	$32.8K	$-12.6K	45% 373-460 (833)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 36.9¢	$12.1K	$15.1K	+$3.0K	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
SM smithagentCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 41.6¢	$9.5K	$10.6K	+$1.7K	46% 888-1048 (1936)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 69.9¢	$9.6K	$6.9K	$-2.7K	38% 500-824 (1324)
38 38791873984189CTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 50.9¢	$8.8K	$5.8K	-$700.39	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 76.1¢	$8.0K	$5.4K	$-2.6K	48% 643-686 (1329)
TRCMCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 40.8¢	$3.3K	$4.2K	+$980	18% 101-461 (562)
tradecraftCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 40.8¢	$3.3K	$4.2K	+$980	35% 485-917 (1402)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 49.4¢	$4.5K	$4.1K	+$237.91	47% 376-418 (794)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Filippo Moroniavg 42.5¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$122.5	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
└ Filippo Moroni leg	Filippo Moroniavg 42.5¢	$2.3K	$2.6K	+$249.32
└ Eliakim Coulibaly leg	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 58.2¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$126.82
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 71.5¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$55.36	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
└ Eliakim Coulibaly leg	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 71.5¢	$2.9K	$2.0K	-$820
└ Filippo Moroni leg	Filippo Moroniavg 24.5¢	$762.6	$1.5K	+$764.64
VE VenusianCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 54¢	$3.8K	$3.4K	-$388.44	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
dips.CTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 51.9¢	$24.7K	$3.3K	+$3.2K	48% 1314-1407 (2721)
OJ ojgCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 30.4¢	$1.4K	$2.4K	+$1.0K	52% 315-288 (603)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 68.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0.62	56% 4181-3271 (7452)
└ Eliakim Coulibaly leg	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 68.5¢	$849.43	$657.01	-$192.42
└ Filippo Moroni leg	Filippo Moroniavg 24.2¢	$202.83	$394.64	+$191.8
LI LimousinCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 55.2¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$43.43	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
CI cigarettesCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 51.7¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$67.08	53% 7546-6651 (14197)
GA GaditimaCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 74¢	$1.1K	$765	-$345	49% 400-411 (811)
poshposhARB<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 66.1¢	$665.91	$679.13	+$13.22	49% 1349-1428 (2777)
└ Eliakim Coulibaly leg	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 66.1¢	$499.41	$385.13	-$114.28
└ Filippo Moroni leg	Filippo Moroniavg 27.8¢	$166.5	$294	+$127.5
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 33¢	$438.45	$652.98	+$214.53	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
└ Eliakim Coulibaly leg	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 33¢	$256.12	$360.62	+$104.51
└ Filippo Moroni leg	Filippo Moroniavg 33.4¢	$182.33	$292.35	+$110.02
NO NotJump	Filippo Moroniavg 46.8¢	$3.4K	$545.72	-$200.48	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
LR lryyyCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 60¢	$606.18	$544.8	-$61.37	46% 998-1194 (2192)

Tan4321

Filippo Moroni

Invested

$252,458.37

Value

$210.4K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$51,041.05

Value

$54.1K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$31,116.39

Value

$34.1K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

46%

653-760 (1413)

alpheclabs2CTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$46,071.47

Value

$32.8K

PnL

$-12.6K

Record

45%

373-460 (833)

MadridTimeCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$12,079.22

Value

$15.1K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

smithagentCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$9,535.13

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

46%

888-1048 (1936)

SlickRick123CTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$9,595.17

Value

$6.9K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

38%

500-824 (1324)

38791873984189CTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$8,798.05

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$700.39

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$8,014.67

Value

$5.4K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

48%

643-686 (1329)

TRCMCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$3,260

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$980

Record

18%

101-461 (562)

tradecraftCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$3,260

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$980

Record

35%

485-917 (1402)

thirdt1meCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$4,548

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$237.91

Record

47%

376-418 (794)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Filippo Moroni

Invested

$3,763.34

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$122.5

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

Both legs:

Filippo Moroni$2,337.1242.5¢+$249.32

Eliakim Coulibaly$1,426.2258.2¢-$126.82

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$3,622.6

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$55.36

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

Both legs:

Eliakim Coulibaly$2,86071.5¢-$820

Filippo Moroni$762.624.5¢+$764.64

VenusianCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$3,788.39

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$388.44

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

dips.CTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$24,741.41

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

48%

1314-1407 (2721)

ojgCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$1,386

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

52%

315-288 (603)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$1,052.27

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0.62

Record

56%

4181-3271 (7452)

Both legs:

Eliakim Coulibaly$849.4368.5¢-$192.42

Filippo Moroni$202.8324.2¢+$191.8

LimousinCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$1,084.35

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$43.43

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

cigarettesCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$1,146.52

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$67.08

Record

53%

7546-6651 (14197)

GaditimaCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$1,110

Value

$765

PnL

-$345

Record

49%

400-411 (811)

poshposhARB<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$665.91

Value

$679.13

PnL

+$13.22

Record

49%

1349-1428 (2777)

Both legs:

Eliakim Coulibaly$499.4166.1¢-$114.28

Filippo Moroni$166.527.8¢+$127.5

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$438.45

Value

$652.98

PnL

+$214.53

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

Both legs:

Eliakim Coulibaly$256.1233¢+$104.51

Filippo Moroni$182.3333.4¢+$110.02

NotJump

Filippo Moroni

Invested

$3,390.55

Value

$545.72

PnL

-$200.48

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

lryyyCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$606.18

Value

$544.8

PnL

-$61.37

Record

46%

998-1194 (2192)

Research grade

NeutralFilippo Moroni at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Filippo Moroni

3 of 30 top traders (10%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-87 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Filippo Moroni. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpEliakim Coulibaly 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperFilippo Moroni 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrEliakim Coulibaly 86% · 14

Diverging

Top 1000Eliakim Coulibaly 88% · 24

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Filippo Moroni wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.