Ningbo: Hiroki Moriya vs Mert Alkaya

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Mert Alkaya (56%) · Mert Alkaya at 80¢ · $803 held · ends Nov 4

Hiroki Moriya21¢Mert Alkaya79¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mert Alkaya

Consensus Traders

Mert Alkaya 56%

Total Value

$802.68

Combined PnL

$30.91

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 79.5¢

+24% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMert Alkaya at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mert Alkaya

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hiroki Moriya21%

Mert Alkaya80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mert Alkaya5 traders

Total Value$739.03

Total Shares1,097

Combined PnL+$32.54

Hiroki Moriya4 traders

Total Value$63.64

Total Shares219

Combined PnL-$1.63

Mert Alkaya — 56%Hiroki Moriya — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Mert Alkayaavg 64¢	$613.13	$625.46	+$23.59	58% 40677-29411 (70088)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Mert Alkayaavg 63¢	$37.7	$39.79	+$2.09	49% 18554-18963 (37517)
0xheavy888<$100	Mert Alkayaavg 66¢	$32.79	$33.03	+$0.25	56% 6870-5503 (12373)
EF efntrick<$100	Mert Alkayaavg 60¢	$20.7	$27.22	+$6.52	48% 3646-3904 (7550)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 35¢	$34.55	$26.78	-$1.37	60% 3949-2662 (6611)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 18¢	$15.81	$16.25	+$0.44	52% 13536-12383 (25919)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Mert Alkayaavg 79¢	$13.43	$13.52	+$0.09	58% 18346-13474 (31820)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 35¢	$13.68	$13.09	-$0.59	58% 28040-20670 (48710)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 34¢	$7.64	$7.53	-$0.11	62% 13594-8446 (22040)

VeryLucky888

Mert Alkaya

Invested

$613.13

Value

$625.46

PnL

+$23.59

Record

58%

40677-29411 (70088)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Mert Alkaya

Invested

$37.7

Value

$39.79

PnL

+$2.09

Record

49%

18554-18963 (37517)

0xheavy888<$100

Mert Alkaya

Invested

$32.79

Value

$33.03

PnL

+$0.25

Record

56%

6870-5503 (12373)

efntrick<$100

Mert Alkaya

Invested

$20.7

Value

$27.22

PnL

+$6.52

Record

48%

3646-3904 (7550)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$34.55

Value

$26.78

PnL

-$1.37

Record

60%

3949-2662 (6611)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$15.81

Value

$16.25

PnL

+$0.44

Record

52%

13536-12383 (25919)

BillBenter2026<$100

Mert Alkaya

Invested

$13.43

Value

$13.52

PnL

+$0.09

Record

58%

18346-13474 (31820)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$13.68

Value

$13.09

PnL

-$0.59

Record

58%

28040-20670 (48710)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$7.64

Value

$7.53

PnL

-$0.11

Record

62%

13594-8446 (22040)

Research grade

NeutralMert Alkaya at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mert Alkaya

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mert Alkaya wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.