Brest: Inaki Montes vs Toby Samuel

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Toby Samuel (67%) · Toby Samuel at 95¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 3

Inaki Montes5¢Toby Samuel95¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Toby Samuel

Consensus Traders

Toby Samuel 67%

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

-$828.41

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 95.4¢

+13% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralToby Samuel at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Toby Samuel

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Inaki Montes5%

Toby Samuel95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Toby Samuel12 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares12,057

Combined PnL+$846.85

Inaki Montes6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares9,324

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Toby Samuel — 67%Inaki Montes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Toby Samuelavg 86.7¢	$4.4K	$4.9K	+$492.45	54% 55709-47794 (103503)
HO HomeRunHazard	Toby Samuelavg 83.8¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$51.13	54% 16861-14141 (31002)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Toby Samuelavg 73.3¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$205.71	52% 13549-12397 (25946)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Inaki Montesavg 22.2¢	$2.4K	$1.2K	$-1.2K	59% 44601-31003 (75604)
GH ghostorder	Toby Samuelavg 94¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$5.34	62% 4258-2630 (6888)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Inaki Montesavg 38.9¢	$1.2K	$671.4	-$492.2	51% 1276-1209 (2485)
1L 1lovejump	Toby Samuelavg 87.2¢	$963.64	$358.2	+$77.08	53% 620-544 (1164)
0xheavy888	Toby Samuelavg 67.6¢	$263.93	$179.47	+$1.07	56% 6908-5524 (12432)
BI BillBenter2026	Toby Samuelavg 89.4¢	$141	$109.99	-$31.02	58% 18394-13497 (31891)
TRCM	Toby Samuelavg 66.1¢	$75.99	$109.49	+$33.5	55% 3914-3141 (7055)
EF efntrick<$100	Toby Samuelavg 83.3¢	$70.8	$65.45	+$8.15	48% 3650-3913 (7563)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Inaki Montesavg 31¢	$36.27	$36.27	+$0	50% 3713-3686 (7399)
tradecraft<$100	Toby Samuelavg 73.1¢	$17.42	$22.29	+$4.86	52% 5870-5504 (11374)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Inaki Montesavg 29¢	$8.12	$8.68	+$0.7	58% 28119-20724 (48843)
PA pauleta23<$100	Toby Samuelavg 81¢	$9.99	$8.51	-$1.48	67% 23102-11503 (34605)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Toby Samuelavg 67¢	$3.35	$3.45	+$0.05	47% 2038-2342 (4380)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Inaki Montesavg 12¢	$3.96	$2.27	-$1.69	53% 3042-2707 (5749)
FL flatbarrelCTR<$100	Inaki Montesavg 16¢	$6.4	$0.4	-$0.48	58% 2734-1956 (4690)

RN1

Toby Samuel

Invested

$4,395.06

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$492.45

Record

54%

55709-47794 (103503)

HomeRunHazard

Toby Samuel

Invested

$3,468.69

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$51.13

Record

54%

16861-14141 (31002)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Toby Samuel

Invested

$1,171.08

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$205.71

Record

52%

13549-12397 (25946)

UpTheBluesCTR

Inaki Montes

Invested

$2,431.09

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

59%

44601-31003 (75604)

ghostorder

Toby Samuel

Invested

$1,003.83

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$5.34

Record

62%

4258-2630 (6888)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Inaki Montes

Invested

$1,163.6

Value

$671.4

PnL

-$492.2

Record

51%

1276-1209 (2485)

1lovejump

Toby Samuel

Invested

$963.64

Value

$358.2

PnL

+$77.08

Record

53%

620-544 (1164)

0xheavy888

Toby Samuel

Invested

$263.93

Value

$179.47

PnL

+$1.07

Record

56%

6908-5524 (12432)

BillBenter2026

Toby Samuel

Invested

$141

Value

$109.99

PnL

-$31.02

Record

58%

18394-13497 (31891)

TRCM

Toby Samuel

Invested

$75.99

Value

$109.49

PnL

+$33.5

Record

55%

3914-3141 (7055)

efntrick<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$70.8

Value

$65.45

PnL

+$8.15

Record

48%

3650-3913 (7563)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Inaki Montes

Invested

$36.27

Value

$36.27

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3713-3686 (7399)

tradecraft<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$17.42

Value

$22.29

PnL

+$4.86

Record

52%

5870-5504 (11374)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Inaki Montes

Invested

$8.12

Value

$8.68

PnL

+$0.7

Record

58%

28119-20724 (48843)

pauleta23<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$9.99

Value

$8.51

PnL

-$1.48

Record

67%

23102-11503 (34605)

ameisgoat11<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

47%

2038-2342 (4380)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Inaki Montes

Invested

$3.96

Value

$2.27

PnL

-$1.69

Record

53%

3042-2707 (5749)

flatbarrelCTR<$100

Inaki Montes

Invested

$6.4

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$0.48

Record

58%

2734-1956 (4690)

Research grade

NeutralToby Samuel at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Toby Samuel

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Toby Samuel wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.6%

95.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.