Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Titouan Droguet

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Alex Molcan (31%) · Alex Molcan at 56¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 9

Alex Molcan56¢Titouan Droguet44¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alex Molcan

Consensus Traders

Alex Molcan 31%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

-$7.39

Smart Money Entry

55.3¢ → 55.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlex Molcan at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Molcan

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alex Molcan56%

Titouan Droguet45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alex Molcan4 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares7,329

Combined PnL-$4.3

Titouan Droguet9 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,754

Combined PnL-$3.09

Alex Molcan — 31%Titouan Droguet — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Alex Molcan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Alex Molcan) and the top 1000 (6 on Titouan Droguet) disagree here.

ctrTitouan Droguet 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedAlex Molcan 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Titouan Droguet 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FA fastball67	Alex Molcanavg 55¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$26.39	49% 123-126 (249)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Titouan Droguetavg 45¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0	72% 6934-2737 (9671)
K5 k56	Alex Molcanavg 55.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$30.72	57% 890-659 (1549)
38 38791873984189CTR	Titouan Droguet	$400.48	$400.48	-$3.19	47% 12988-14555 (27543)
VeryLucky888CTR	Titouan Droguetavg 45¢	$315	$311.5	-$3.5	58% 43595-31708 (75303)
poshposhCTR<$100	Titouan Droguetavg 43¢	$63.02	$65.95	+$3.66	58% 11427-8282 (19709)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Titouan Droguetavg 44¢	$44	$45	+$1.5	47% 10052-11159 (21211)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Titouan Droguetavg 46.2¢	$42.06	$40.5	-$1.57	58% 48507-34663 (83170)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Titouan Droguetavg 45¢	$26.1	$26.1	+$0	55% 7458-5981 (13439)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Titouan Droguetavg 45¢	$7.93	$7.93	+$0	65% 1809-988 (2797)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Titouan Droguetavg 45¢	$6.24	$6.24	+$0	61% 13844-8749 (22593)
IW iWasEnough<$100	Alex Molcanavg 55¢	$4.89	$4.85	-$0.04	53% 8072-7284 (15356)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Alex Molcanavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.78	+$0.08	52% 7637-6912 (14549)

fastball67

Alex Molcan

Invested

$2,792.05

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$26.39

Record

49%

123-126 (249)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Titouan Droguet

Invested

$1,227.15

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

72%

6934-2737 (9671)

k56

Alex Molcan

Invested

$1,250

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$30.72

Record

57%

890-659 (1549)

38791873984189CTR

Titouan Droguet

Invested

$400.48

Value

$400.48

PnL

-$3.19

Record

47%

12988-14555 (27543)

VeryLucky888CTR

Titouan Droguet

Invested

$315

Value

$311.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

58%

43595-31708 (75303)

poshposhCTR<$100

Titouan Droguet

Invested

$63.02

Value

$65.95

PnL

+$3.66

Record

58%

11427-8282 (19709)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Titouan Droguet

Invested

$44

Value

$45

PnL

+$1.5

Record

47%

10052-11159 (21211)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Titouan Droguet

Invested

$42.06

Value

$40.5

PnL

-$1.57

Record

58%

48507-34663 (83170)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Titouan Droguet

Invested

$26.1

Value

$26.1

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

7458-5981 (13439)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Titouan Droguet

Invested

$7.93

Value

$7.93

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

1809-988 (2797)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Titouan Droguet

Invested

$6.24

Value

$6.24

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

13844-8749 (22593)

iWasEnough<$100

Alex Molcan

Invested

$4.89

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

8072-7284 (15356)

ameisgoat11<$100

Alex Molcan

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

7637-6912 (14549)

Research grade

NeutralAlex Molcan at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Alex Molcan

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Alex Molcan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Alex Molcan) and the top 1000 (6 on Titouan Droguet) disagree here.

ctrTitouan Droguet 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedAlex Molcan 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Titouan Droguet 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alex Molcan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.